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Prediction markets for RIF

If Trump becomes president will his administration regulate or ban AR-15 style rifles?

Jul 15, 5:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5.79%chance

204372

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4035

248

Will we get commercialized optical disks with >=200TiB storage capacity? If so, when?

Feb 24, 2:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

151678

OptionProbability

2031- or never

2029-30

2027-2028

2026-2027

2024-2025

55

22

17

6

1

Will drones make humans with rifles obsolete until 2035?

Oct 12, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.06%chance

121025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1996

501

Will Lada Nuzhna ever successfully kill a Russian with a sniper rifle?

Dec 23, 12:56 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.95%chance

4121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

68

Will "Democracy Dies With The Rifleman" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Apr 6, 8:25 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

15.84%chance

390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

882

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