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Prediction markets for Right to Information

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3579699

OptionProbability

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

48

21

20

8

1

1

1

1

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6562202

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Dmitry Medvedev

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

6

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.63%chance

7720024

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2468

1439

Will there be more than 100K AI successionists globally by Nov 7, 2028?

Apr 28, 4:20 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

31%chance

1819062

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1492

670

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

37.69%chance

9612469

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1801

554

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.15%chance

739152

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8143

3540

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

325852

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

735

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.56%chance

251610

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1050

952

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

56.45%chance

7225

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1139

878

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