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Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

Jul 9, 4:05 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

3074836

OptionProbability

Republican president, <2%

Republican president, >= 2%, <3%

Republican president, >= 3%, <4%

Republican president, >=4%

Democrat president, <2%

Democrat president, >= 2%, <3%

Democrat president, >= 3%, <4%

Democrat president, >=4%

31

26

21

19

1

1

1

1

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6461670

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

7

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will the US Government lose its monopoly on violence within its borders before 2035?

Jun 16, 5:44 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.59%chance

7719985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2716

1411

Is cryonic reanimation possible with current preservation technology?

Nov 20, 3:41 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

39%chance

9112352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1767

574

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.06%chance

738614

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7681

3695

Did Jane Street do anything wrong in India?

Jul 9, 9:59 PMJan 1, 5:51 PM

47.51%chance

241609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

951

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.28%chance

251496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

966

Will Manifold help me secure 1:1 tutoring students I love working with by EOY 2025?

Dec 1, 3:21 AMMar 1, 11:59 PM

50.65%chance

7826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1013

987

Will at least some AIs receive legal protections against cruelty in the U.S. before 2050?

Aug 6, 1:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.62%chance

21788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

968

Will AI systems and humans merge to create Cyborgs which are also the primary way that most humans live, this century?

Mar 24, 9:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 AM

59.37%chance

15591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

765

Will humans remain better at clever turns of phrase and great illustrations, as Wired claims?

Nov 2, 3:43 PMNov 3, 2:37 PM

41.7%chance

6320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

846

Will A New Accusation of Sexual Impropriety Be Made Against Gavin Newsom by the MSM before Nov 8 2028?

Dec 5, 3:27 PMNov 9, 6:59 AM

49.89%chance

352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

998

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