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Prediction markets for RISE

Will the unemployment rate among CS degree-holders rise to over 30% by 2030?

Mar 22, 10:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.76%chance

593442

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2172

892

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 10 years?

Aug 8, 11:05 PMAug 9, 9:59 PM

32.48%chance

263334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1111

481

Will the World GDP rise or fall by at least 10% year over year in at least one of the next 15 years?

Aug 15, 8:15 AMAug 15, 9:59 PM

68.29%chance

433189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1496

596

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79%chance

432588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

Will US fertility rise above 1.7 at any time during Trump’s second term?

Dec 25, 5:02 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

14.8%chance

212166

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2400

417

Will bitcoin rise to 105k before the Strait of Hormuz is freely open?

Sep 29, 1:01 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

33.32%chance

251596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

707

Will Berkshire Hathaway stock rise on the news of Warren Buffet’s death (go up on the next /current trading day)

Jan 15, 1:27 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

21.81%chance

251285

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1230

913

Will average wages rise faster than average house prices in the UK before the next general election?

Jul 14, 11:42 AMAug 25, 10:59 PM

40.75%chance

11595

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1206

829

Will the US debt-to-GDP ratio rise between 2023 and 2030

Dec 26, 4:35 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.55%chance

15423

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1287

911

Does the rise of AI explain the Great Silence in the Universe?

Apr 21, 11:02 PMApr 29, 3:59 AM

23.04%chance

12329

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1089

949

Will the number of conflicts involving AI-powered autonomous weapons systems rise by at least 50% within next 10 years?

Apr 9, 9:30 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.15%chance

12270

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1232

880

Will we see the rise of a post scarcity economic summit before 2030 ?

Jun 22, 9:30 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.53%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1051

952

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