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Prediction markets for Risk
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
64%chance
25317966
OptionVotes
2476
1753
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.49%chance
517972
OptionVotes
5305
495
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
87.47%chance
387402
OptionVotes
2643
378
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
71.9%chance
774062
OptionVotes
1175
1159
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM
32.12%chance
491707
OptionVotes
1033
874
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
15.85%chance
241567
OptionVotes
1201
926
🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?
Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.13%chance
10454
OptionVotes
1096
933
OptionVotes
1154
867
If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?
Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.91%chance
17389
OptionVotes
1068
862
Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?
Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
44.93%chance
7176
OptionVotes
1107
903