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Top stories

Company Earnings

Riskified Lifts 2025 Outlook and Adds $75 Million Share Buyback

Authors

5

3 days ago

Prediction markets for Risk

Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?

Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM

18.08%chance

10048532

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

1344

By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?

Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.48%chance

25117360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2568

1703

Nuclear Risk 2025: How many of the 7 linked questions resolve Yes?

Aug 12, 7:05 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

1810386

OptionProbability

0

1

4-5

2

3

6-7

76

12

4

3

3

2

Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

7.46%chance

507971

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5317

494

Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?

May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

87.5%chance

377300

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2645

378

In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?

Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.93%chance

764012

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1313

1109

Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?

May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

90.54%chance

383908

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7894

5344

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29.88%chance

251969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1667

397

By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?

Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM

32.91%chance

461643

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

852

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

15.85%chance

231547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1201

926

🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?

Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.13%chance

10454

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1096

933

If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?

Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

37.91%chance

17389

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

862

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