Risk News
Top stories
Prediction markets for Risk
Will Anthropic escape the "supply chain risk" designation by EOY 2026?
Feb 27, 11:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
80.08%chance
22850019
OptionVotes
15809
7952
Will Yudkowsky agree that his "death with dignity" post overstated the risk of extinction from AI, by end of 2029?
Dec 2, 3:54 PMNov 22, 12:38 PM
18.08%chance
10048532
OptionVotes
1573
1344
By end of 2028, will AI be considered a bigger x risk than climate change by the general US population?
Apr 5, 4:25 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
61.42%chance
25317819
OptionVotes
2329
1841
Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?
Jan 21, 11:42 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM
7.49%chance
517972
OptionVotes
5305
495
Will AI existential risk be mentioned in the white house briefing room again by May 2029?
May 23, 1:08 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM
87.05%chance
377352
OptionVotes
2593
386
In 2050, will the general consensus among experts be that the concern over AI risk in the 2020s was justified?
Apr 4, 3:57 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM
71.9%chance
774062
OptionVotes
1175
1159
Will someone take desperate measures due to expectations of AI-related risks by January 1, 2035?
May 18, 11:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM
90.52%chance
383921
OptionVotes
7881
5345
Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?
Sep 4, 2:13 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM
29.88%chance
251969
OptionVotes
1667
397
By 2028, will I believe that contemporary AIs are aligned (posing no existential risk)?
Jan 6, 4:19 AMJan 2, 9:59 AM
33.94%chance
481657
OptionVotes
1058
824
Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]
Sep 21, 6:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
16.59%chance
241557
OptionVotes
1149
936
🎗️ Will CharityVest experience significant financial trouble that puts donors' accounts at risk?
Mar 4, 5:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
32.13%chance
10454
OptionVotes
1096
933
If humanity survives to 2100, what will experts believe was the correct level of AI risk for us to assess in 2023?
Sep 14, 4:47 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
37.91%chance
17389
OptionVotes
1068
862