Roberts Court News

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

Jan 26, 3:07 AMFeb 25, 7:59 AM

2.68%chance

4983359

OptionVotes

YES

58604

5190

What will happen during Trump's second term?

Nov 8, 3:31 AMJan 22, 4:59 AM

769713

OptionProbability

RFK Jr. gets cabinet position or position in any public health department

Flag desecration prohibition passed

Any vaccines banned for any group of people

J6er pardoned

Sports team invited to the white house

A member of Congress is censured or expelled

Mass Deportations

The democrats take control of the house of representatives

Prohibiting or restricting transgender care for adults

A major insider trading scandal linked to the US executive branch

Trump is impeached

Joe Exotic is released from prison

350 million people or more die, according to expert estimates

US punitive expedition in Mexico

Drone strike in Mexico by US

Starlink satellites damaged by US adversary

AGI achieved

100k humanoid robots manufactured

China invades Taiwan

It ends with JD Vance becoming president

Coup attempt in the United States

A human walks on the Moon

Room temperature superconductor discovered

Significant Rogue AI Incident

Supreme Court packing

Nuclear weapon detonation

The Senate eliminates the filibuster

Elon Musk is arrested for treason

Eagles three-peat

Tulsi Gabbard is arrested for treason

Any part of Greenland becomes de facto US territory (excludes military bases)

US military intervention on Canadian territory

Donald Trump reelected President

22nd amendment repealed or interpreted to only apply to consecutive terms

Largest solar flare since Carrington Event

End Russo-Ukranian war in 90 days

100

What will happen to Robert Roberson, currently sentenced to death for a "shaken baby syndrome" murder?

Mar 5, 5:16 AMMar 12, 3:59 PM

74814

OptionProbability

Execution date set

Scheduled execution stayed / postponed

Execution date set (post-October 2025)

Executed

Commuted to life / other clemency beyond stay of execution

Executed in 2026

Conviction removed (vacated, pardon, actual innocence, or otherwise)

Released from prison

Executed in 2025

Dies while on death row (not executed)

100

SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?

Aug 13, 12:04 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

1.44%chance

134768

OptionVotes

YES

826

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Jul 31, 2:04 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

80.23%chance

201955

OptionVotes

YES

2015

496

Will Trump sign an executive order in 2025 that dissolves the Department of Education and is not overturned by courts?

Mar 6, 2:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.98%chance

16757

OptionVotes

YES

300

Roberts Court News

Prediction markets for Roberts Court

Prediction markets for Roberts Court

Prediction markets for Roberts Court

Will Trump pardon Luigi Mangione prior to Jan 20, 2029?

What will happen during Trump's second term?

What will happen to Robert Roberson, currently sentenced to death for a "shaken baby syndrome" murder?

SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

Will Trump sign an executive order in 2025 that dissolves the Department of Education and is not overturned by courts?

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