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Prediction markets for Robin AI

Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?

Apr 6, 4:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

19.06%chance

747799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1813

734

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

47.61%chance

414504

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1114

796

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

68.29%chance

732820

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1647

1011

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

18950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

778

Will anyone make a YouTube video seriously claiming to "debunk" Eliezer Yudkowsky on AI risk?

Apr 4, 6:04 PMApr 4, 10:59 PM

85.48%chance

17799

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1308

920

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?

Apr 26, 7:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

16626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

942

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033?

Apr 30, 1:00 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

76.98%chance

14345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1036

784

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

Will OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?

Apr 7, 5:16 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

28.4%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

951

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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