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Prediction markets for Robin AI

Will AI wipe humanity by 2030?

Apr 6, 4:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

15%chance

696703

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

660

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

275530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1255

619

Will AI take over the world by 2100?

Mar 26, 12:12 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

49.16%chance

414477

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

767

Will an AI play a pivotal role in solving an important political issue by 2033?

Mar 14, 11:02 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

70.03%chance

722785

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1725

976

In 20 years, will the employment:population ratio for prime-age Americans be below 70%?

Nov 2, 12:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

18950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

778

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

25652

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

932

By 2033, will TikTok DJs face competition from at least one AI DJ?

Apr 26, 7:58 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

75.44%chance

16626

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1116

942

Will any prominent e/accs switch sides to Notkilleveryoneism after examining the arguments in detail?

Apr 9, 9:06 PMApr 9, 10:59 PM

73.83%chance

17361

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

967

Conditional on AI taking coding jobs, will devs brought in to clean up after an AI complain the AI code is unreadable?

Apr 8, 11:04 AMApr 8, 10:59 PM

74.74%chance

18329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1081

960

Will video-creating AIs make Hollywood movies significantly cheaper to make by 2033?

Apr 30, 1:00 PMApr 30, 10:59 PM

79.95%chance

13312

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1003

905

Will OpenAI pay compensation to people who their AIs "defame"?

Apr 7, 5:16 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

28.4%chance

12226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1097

951

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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