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Prediction markets for Robot

Bloomberg Odd Lots with Josh Wolfe: Will the field of Robotics have its "ChatGPT moment" by December 31, 2025?

Jan 7, 1:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.82%chance

1029138455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

344298

43497

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

54%chance

602394096

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16776

7995

Will there be over 1000 Optimus robots working at Tesla before 2026?

Jun 16, 9:26 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

8.18%chance

15364747

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3350

299

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.36%chance

18925011

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1600

510

Will robots be able to load a dishwasher in the next five years?

Sep 23, 4:36 AMSep 24, 6:59 AM

79.61%chance

588508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1460

566

By 2030, Humanoid Robots can Fold laundry as well and as fast as the median human clothing store employee.

Jan 5, 11:09 AMJan 12, 8:09 AM

67.57%chance

748052

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1146

933

Will Tesla sell >$1B of humanoid robots by 2030?

Oct 1, 2:00 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

42.88%chance

606480

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

853

Robot Childcare by end of 2030?

Sep 2, 5:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.05%chance

274919

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3380

296

Will most people be dating robot cat girls in 15 years?

Apr 7, 7:37 PMApr 7, 11:59 PM

2%chance

324001

OptionVotes

YES

NO

700

14

Will any country grant legal rights to any new "nonhuman" entities (AI, robots, aliens...) before end of year 2040?

Mar 30, 1:20 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

52.01%chance

562081

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

1104

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before 2033?

Mar 8, 6:11 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

78.87%chance

171415

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1843

591

When will a humanoid robot first be used as farm labor?

Nov 11, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

00

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

Other

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

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