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Prediction markets for Robot Consulting

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.36%chance

659577278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16162

8561

Will a robot be created that can fully substitute for a plumber before January 1st, 2040?

Mar 17, 3:17 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.29%chance

19025144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1427

598

Will a robot be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 17, 3:30 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

91.84%chance

8713743

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2349

1035

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Mar 11, 12:09 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

71.93%chance

163414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1009

979

Will a human be created that is capable of passing Steve Wozniak's "The Coffee Test" before 2040?

Mar 22, 11:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78%chance

231193

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

779

Will a robot demonstrate exceptional speed, versatility, and performance in extreme environments by 2040?

Mar 19, 9:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

64.99%chance

291162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1292

787

Will a robot autonomously climb a set of challenging mountains and rock formations by 2040?

Mar 17, 3:49 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.34%chance

24744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1327

804

Will an autonomous humanoid robot consistently defeat top tennis players by 2040?

Mar 17, 4:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.01%chance

16386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

201

194

[Metaculus] Will an AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen before 2030?

Nov 2, 12:28 AMJan 2, 8:00 AM

24.19%chance

12328

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

161

Will Kaeberlein, Sinclair, Jose Luis Ricon, Zhavoronkov, Lada Nuzhna, Bryan Johnson, Guerente all DnD campaign by 2035?

Dec 3, 4:22 PM

10

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