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Prediction markets for Rocket Companies

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.94%chance

3611687

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1685

594

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.74%chance

198231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7532

133

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.77%chance

347169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3717

270

In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?

Sep 16, 3:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

156465

OptionProbability

2029

2030

2028

This will not have happened before the end of 2035.

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

2027

2024

2025

2026

18

17

13

12

11

7

6

5

5

4

1

1

1

When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Apr 14, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

192805

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1 2030

Before Jan 1 2029

Before Jan 1 2028

Never

2030 or later

Before Jan 1 2027

Before Jan 1 2026

91

90

87

10

4

3

0

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8%chance

191444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1749

806

Which will be the first hybrid-propellant rocket to reach orbit?

Apr 4, 1:46 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

8789

OptionProbability

Eris (Gilmour Space)

None reach orbit by EOY 2035

Other

Kestrel V (ATSpace)

Aurora (Reaction Dynamics)

SL1 (HyImpulse)

54

28

6

5

4

4

Will New Glenn 7x2 ever fly again?

May 29, 6:53 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

94.42%chance

6487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

411

24

Will SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?

Aug 17, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.42%chance

10470

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1346

743

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

What company will achieve the first successful air-launch to orbit rocket launch from the UK?

Apr 27, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

244

OptionProbability

Other

Virgin Orbit

0

0

Will SABRE be tested in Earth's atmosphere by a free-flying aircraft before 2035?

May 13, 3:30 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

76.97%chance

242

OptionVotes

NO

YES

112

47

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