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Prediction markets for Rocket Companies

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

92.45%chance

288754

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3502

286

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.28%chance

244492

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3573

281

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.09%chance

132483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1936

518

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

810

Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

Jul 2, 8:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

99%chance

131199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?

Apr 19, 12:17 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

83.17%chance

11523

OptionVotes

NO

YES

384

112

Which African country will be the first to launch an orbital rocket in the 21st century?

Apr 16, 2:51 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5436

OptionProbability

Other

Djibouti

Kenya

Tanzania

South Africa

Nigeria

Egypt

Somalia

Equatorial Guinea

Morocco

A country not currently existing

39

30

10

10

5

2

1

1

0

0

0

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?

May 9, 2:44 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10%chance

3148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

33

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.32%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.87%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

93

What company will achieve the first successful air-launch to orbit rocket launch from the UK?

Apr 27, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

244

OptionProbability

Other

Virgin Orbit

0

0

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