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Prediction markets for Rocket Companies

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.36%chance

194783

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2901

345

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.07%chance

193036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3171

316

Will Stoke Space fly to space by 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.45%chance

111879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1294

775

When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Apr 14, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

161669

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1 2030

Before Jan 1 2028

Before Jan 1 2029

Before Jan 1 2027

Never

2030 or later

Before Jan 1 2026

86

85

84

17

14

4

0

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

810

Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

Jul 2, 8:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.89%chance

12686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

681

15

Which African country will be the first to launch an orbital rocket in the 21st century?

Apr 16, 2:51 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5436

OptionProbability

Other

Djibouti

Kenya

Tanzania

South Africa

Nigeria

Egypt

Somalia

Equatorial Guinea

Morocco

A country not currently existing

39

30

10

10

5

2

1

1

0

0

0

Super high speed travel: 90 minutes from NYC to Tokyo before 2047

Jun 12, 9:39 PMFeb 2, 4:59 AM

15.48%chance

7236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

275

107

Will Neutron Launch before Christmas?

Jan 22, 4:51 AMDec 24, 11:59 PM

80%chance

5189

OptionVotes

NO

YES

200

50

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?

May 9, 2:44 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10%chance

3148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

33

What company will achieve the first successful air-launch to orbit rocket launch from the UK?

Apr 27, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

244

OptionProbability

Other

Virgin Orbit

0

0

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