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Prediction markets for Rocket Companies

When will Starship first launch with useful payload?

Mar 15, 2:03 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6855626

OptionProbability

Before 2026-12-01

Before 2026-11-01

Before 2026-10-01

Before 2026-09-01

Before 2026-08-01

Before 2026-07-01

Before 2026-06-01

Before 2026-04-01

Before 2026-05-01

Before 2024-05-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2024-07-01

Before 2024-08-01

Before 2024-09-01

Before 2024-10-01

Before 2024-11-01

Before 2024-12-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2025-02-01

Before 2025-03-01

Before 2025-04-01

Before 2025-05-01

Before 2025-06-01

Before 2025-07-01

Before 2025-08-01

Before 2025-09-01

Before 2025-10-01

Before 2025-11-01

Before 2025-12-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2026-02-01

Before 2026-03-01

89

86

83

73

60

34

17

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship?

Feb 12, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.75%chance

256463

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2678

374

7. Sam Altman will step aside as CEO of OpenAI.

Dec 28, 11:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.58%chance

193559

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2640

380

When will a single Falcon 9 booster fly 40 times

Apr 14, 10:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

162034

OptionProbability

Before Jan 1 2029

Before Jan 1 2030

Before Jan 1 2028

Never

Before Jan 1 2027

2030 or later

Before Jan 1 2026

86

86

83

14

6

4

0

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Dec 16, 6:04 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.98%chance

121950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

734

Will a spacecraft powered by SABRE engines reach orbit before 2035?

May 13, 3:52 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

8.25%chance

181394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1699

810

Will any company or space agency other than SpaceX successfully use reusable rocket launch system by 2027?

Jul 2, 8:28 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

97.83%chance

12695

OptionVotes

NO

YES

671

15

Elon Musk Work for the US Defense Industry to create weapons before 2040

Apr 23, 5:53 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

27.32%chance

11176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

981

Will a rocket launched from Taiwan reach orbit before the end of 2030?

May 9, 2:44 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

10%chance

3148

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

33

Will CNSA's Chang'e-6 discover significant amounts of rare earth elements?

May 7, 4:45 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

44.32%chance

7103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

Will Astra's Rocket 4 Launch in 2026?

Jan 23, 2:02 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.87%chance

150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

93

What company will achieve the first successful air-launch to orbit rocket launch from the UK?

Apr 27, 2:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

244

OptionProbability

Other

Virgin Orbit

0

0

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