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Top stories

Xi Purges Fifth of PLA Generals Before Beijing Weapons Parade

Xi Purges Fifth of PLA Generals Before Beijing Weapons Parade

Authors

13

7 months ago

Prediction markets for Rocket Force

Which Rocket Launches Next?

Feb 15, 3:54 AMApr 1, 3:59 AM

154397

OptionProbability

SLS (Artemis II)

Starship (Flight 12)

New Glenn (Blue Bird Block 2)

Vulcan (GPS III SV10)

40

29

28

2

Will Hamas actually disarm in 2026?

Jan 3, 3:11 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.34%chance

181709

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2263

442

Will Daryl Morey win an NBA title as a team executive before 2035?

Feb 10, 8:50 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

46.26%chance

9986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

392

200

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2027?

Oct 24, 7:32 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

20%chance

13291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

62

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2035?

Oct 24, 7:38 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

88.77%chance

6265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

251

33

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2029?

Oct 24, 7:34 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

47.7%chance

8200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

105

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2028?

Oct 24, 7:33 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

19.84%chance

6154

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

55

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2032?

Oct 24, 7:36 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

83.17%chance

5140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

156

28

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2040?

Oct 24, 7:40 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

78.05%chance

4129

OptionVotes

NO

YES

193

67

Will a clash between American and Chinese armed forces result in at least one fatality before 2030?

Oct 24, 7:35 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

40.24%chance

790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

94

85

Will Zhang Shengmin be expelled from the Chinese Communist Party before 2028?

Jan 21, 3:34 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.02%chance

125

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

80

Will China conduct a military exercise around Taiwan before May 1, 2026?

Mar 22, 8:00 PMApr 30, 11:59 PM

47.91%chance

215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

96

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