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Prediction markets for Rolling Play

Will the next president state a P(doom)?

Jul 30, 2:59 PMJan 22, 4:59 AM

1711140

OptionProbability

Trump / No

Trump / Yes

Harris / Yes

Harris / No

Other

84

14

1

1

1

Is the probability of dying in Anthropic Snake Eyes 1/36?

Jul 20, 8:54 PMDec 31, 9:54 PM

18.62%chance

246864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1337

860

By 2027, will it ever become media consensus that a Boeing Whistleblower died by foul play?

May 3, 5:22 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.46%chance

263026

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2867

702

Will I lose another character in my PbP RPG server before anyone else loses a character?

Jul 1, 4:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

30.96%chance

3938

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1493

670

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant Y?

Sep 8, 6:58 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2.73%chance

8680

OptionVotes

YES

NO

732

111

What's the probability of death in Snake Eyes Variant N?

Sep 8, 6:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.96%chance

9573

OptionVotes

NO

YES

372

367

Conditional upon an invasion of Niger, will Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum be restored to de facto control of Niger?

Aug 4, 11:09 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

33.49%chance

9267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

149

Non-celebrity Vintage Boss Katana amplifier sells for more than price of 20 metric tons of iron ore or scrap by 2050

Dec 21, 12:12 AMDec 28, 2:59 PM

51.5%chance

440

OptionVotes

YES

NO

116

102

Will there be a new TRIUMPH OF THE WILL -like film centered on MAGA/Trump by EOY2028?

Jan 20, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.87%chance

332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Would you play this version of the Snake Eyes game?

Aug 24, 6:58 PMApr 18, 6:59 AM

200

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