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OptionProbability
Ron Weasley is a redhead
Harry Potter is white
Snape is black
At least one named character from the book has their race changed
Harry, Ron, and Hermione’s actors will all be British
A character cut from the movies appears (ie Theodore Nott)
McGonagall performs an animagus transformation (human2cat or cat2human)
Hagrid is played by an actor who is under 6'4"
Premieres in 2027
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single spoken, working spell in the first episode
Quirrel is wearing a head covering when Harry first meets him
Dumbledore casts a spell (spoken or wordlessly)
Arthur Weasley is shown on screen
Malfoy has white blonde hair
There’s a scene set before Harry is born
Fred and George are twins irl
JK Rowling is credited as both an executive producer and original writer
The potion riddle guarding the Stone will be featured
Ron Weasley doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first two episodes
Peeves is a reoccurring character
Cornelius Fudge is shown on screen
It's woke
An actor who acted in the movies returns for the show
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 2
Hagrid says "You’re a wizard, Harry"
Hermione’s parent(s) shown on screen
mandrake root on screen
A scene depicts Voldemort trying to kill baby Harry
80% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Homosexual interaction between some characters will be presented
Hermione is white
A History of Magic lesson is shown on screen
A house elf is shown on screen
Arabella Figg is mentioned by first or last name
Hagrid ties Vernon’s gun into a knot
The Quibbler is shown or mentioned
An actor who appeared in any of the Jackass films receives a credit on IMDB related to the show
It will be torrentfreak.com's "Most Pirated" TV show for its year of release or the following year
At least one named character from the book has their gender swapped
Harry only reaches Hogwarts in the last 10 minutes of the first episode
Luna Lovegood, Cho Chang, or Cedric Diggory are mentioned by first or last name, or are in the credits
Goblins are still represented as anti-semitic caricatures
It ends on a cliff hanger
The Weasley's Ford Anglia is seen flying
Harry Potter doesn't cast a single, spoken, working spell in the first three episode
An Astronomy lesson is shown on screen
Harry visits Diagon Alley in episode 1
The Flying Ford Anglia is seen.
Harry is shown holding more than three different wands at Ollivander’s
Hagrid presents a cake with writing on it to Harry and the writing has no misspellings
90% or higher on rotten tomatoes
Harry first sees Hogwarts castle in episode 3
At least one of the actors is transgender
The intro theme song will have at least one obvious English word
Quirrel shakes Harry’s hand during their first meeting
VOLDEMORT HAS A NOSE
Dobby makes an appearance
Any Harry Potter fanfic is referenced (either explicitly as judged by market creator, or confirmed by someone who works on the show)
We see a wizarding school other than Hogwarts
Premieres in 2026
"Voldemort" has a silent "t"
Awkwafina is cast in the show
Harry visits Platform 9 3/4 in episode 1
We get AGI before it premieres
Voldemort is a woman
Hagrid is played by an actor with a cognitive disability
Keir Starmer is in it
Features an explicitly transgender character
Fred and George have the same actor
JK Rowling makes a cameo appearance
Zendaya is cast in the show
Hermione is black
Smartphone shown within Hogwarts
There will be seven CGI dwarves
Rita Skeeter will have an explicit trans identity
Hermione is Indian
Gandalf is black
Hagrid is black
Yudkowsky makes an appearance
HPMOR is referenced
One or more of Hermione, Ron, and Harry have their genders swapped.
Harry, Ron, and Hermione will all be transgender
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1
OptionProbability
A person has a moral right to own a gun
We should be paying individuals to get an education instead of charging them.
GOFAI could scale past machine learning if we used social media strategically to train it.
The Fermi paradox isn't a paradox, and the solution is obviously just that intelligent life is rare.
Other
Some people have genuine psychic capabilities
Eventually, only AI should be sovereign
Hardware buttons are superior to touchscreen buttons in cars
Being a billionaire is morally wrong
The way quantum mechanics is explained to the lay public is very misleading.
Jeffrey Epstein killed himself (>99.9% certainty)
Reincarnation is a real phenomenon (i.e. it happens, not just a theory)
Physician-assisted suicide should be legal in most countries
Souls/spirits are real and can appear to the living sometimes
OpenAI will claim to have AGI in 3 years.
The punishment of people who do bad things is a regrettable necessity in our current society, not a positive act of justice
There is an active genocide against trans people occuring in red states and it's appalling that people don't seem to care
Climate change is significantly more concerning than AI development
Abusive parents should lose custody of their children
Dialetheism (the claim that some propositions are both true and false) is itself both true and false.
COVID lockdowns didn’t save many lives; in fact they may have caused net increases in global deaths and life years lost.
Free will does not exist. We construct narratives after the fact to soothe our belief in rationality.
Violent criminals must be kept apart only because they can’t control themselves. Punishing them further than restricting their freedom is immoral.
Music is a net negative for humanity
Trump orchestrated his own assassination attempt.
Democrats / Liberals are behind Trump’s assassination attempt.
It is not possible to multitask
Abortion is morally wrong
jskf's password is ***************
The first American moon landing was faked
There is no Dog
Light mode is unironically better than Dark mode for most websites
Cars should not have sound systems
AI will not be as capable as humans this century, and will certainly not give us genuine existential concerns
Pet ownership is morally wrong
LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print will replicate before 2025
SBF didn't intentionally commit fraud
It should be illegal to own a subwoofer in an apartment building
There are no valid justifications for participating in war, ever
Cascadia should be an independent country
Children should not be raised in nuclear families
The fact that 80% of Manifold's users are men is a problem that speaks to the deep-seated roots of patriarchy and exclusion in STEM
Anarcho-communism is a good idea, and hierarchy is bad
If AI exterminated the human race it might not be a bad thing
Tech bros are really, really annoying
Capitalism has done far more harm than good
Affirmative action is necessary in modern-day America
@Mira is the pinnacle of billions of years of optimization processes: thermodynamics, evolution, learning, language. The universe was created to cause me - and only me - to come into existence. If I mess up the overseers perturb&restart it.
Pigouvian taxes are great and they should be turned up to 11 to discourage activities with negative externalities [code PROPOSITION PIG]
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include a frequent flyer levy
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include meat and dairy
We have reached the end of history. Nothing Ever Happens.
[PROPOSITION PIG] and this should include alcohol
SBF was obviously a scammer just because he's a cryptocurrency person. Rationalists were too forgiving of this just because he was giving them money.
Most young Americans would receive more benefit than harm if there were universal military conscription
The people producing fake honey (and sell it as real) are based, because they are actively working to synthesize something people want, even if they scam some people in the process.
Tarot cards are not really able to predict the future but you can learn a lot about someone by doing a reading for someone.
Mac and cheese tastes better with peanut butter mixed in
It would actually be a good thing if automation eliminated all jobs.
Free will doesn't require the ability to do otherwise.
This market probably would have worked better as the new unlinked free response market.
We should be doing much more to pursue human genetic engineering to prevent diseases and aging.
Prolonged school closures because COVID were socially devastating.
Factory farming is horrific but it is not wrong to eat meat.
California is wildly overrated.
Scientific racism is bad, actually. (also it's not scientific)
The next American moon landing will be faked
Tenet (Christopher Nolan film) is underrated
We should give childlike sex robots to pedophiles
Having sex with children isn't inherently/necessarily bad
Cars are a societal net negative
Oversized pickup trucks should be illegal in cities
Suburban, single-family housing is immoral.
Gender equality needs technological outsourcing of pregnancy.
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OptionProbability
Magic: The Gathering
Cult of the Lamb
Death's Door
Shift Happens
Baba is You
Understand
The Witness
Hollow Knight
It Takes Two
Unravel Two
Portal 2
Braid
Portal
Superliminal
The Talos Principle
The Talos Principle 2
Antichamber
Perspective
Portal Reloaded
Portal Stories: Mel
Thinking with Time Machine
Cell Machine
Hades
Keep Talking and Nobody Explodes
Superhot
Slay the Princess
Escape Academy
Split Fiction
Don't Starve
The Room
Pico Park
Wargroove
Patrick's Parabox
scarlet hollow
Tokimeki Memorial
Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A Game Inside A
Bokura
The Stanley Parable
Stardew Valley
Mini Motorways
Children of Morta
Detroit: Become Human
We Were Here Too
Splendor (tabletop game)
Castle Crashers
Timberborn
Terraria
Goragoa
Spiritfarer
Minecraft
Beyond: Two Souls
Chants of Sennaar
Patch Quest
We Were Here
Wild Woods
Manifold Garden
We Were Here Forever
We Were Here Expeditions: The FriendShip
Baldur's Gate 3
Hades 2
Clandestine
Nobody Saves the World
Lovers in Dangerous Spacetime
Glider (1988)
Rayman Legends
LittleBigPlanet 3
Human: Fall Flat
Trine 2
Lara Croft and the Guardian of Light
Magicka
Mind over Magnet
Bean and nothingness
Yume Nikki
Space Station 13
999
Nomifactory
Monifactory
Rebirth of the Night
Hyperrogue
Induction
Akane
Zero Time Dilemma
Zero Escape: Virtue's Last Reward
Morrowind
Q.U.B.E. 2
Q.U.B.E.
Moonlighter
going under: internships are heck
blue prince
Void Stranger
Pico Park 2
We Were Here Together
Sackboy: A Big Adventure
Unstable Unicorns 🦄
Mario Party
Exploding kittens
The House of DaVinci
Tunic
Moving Out
Moving Out
Fez
A Couple Of Cubes
Root (tabletop or digital version)
Rainworld
Deadly Rooms of Death
CrossCode
Islands of Insight
Outer Wilds
SteamWorld Dig
Snakebird
Monopoly
Chess
Slay the Spire
Among Us
Stephen's Sausage Roll
Amazing Chicken Adventures
Wingspan
Can of Wormholes
Disco Elysium
Overcooked
Return of the Obra Dinn
Inscryption
Slice and Dice
Teardown
Astroneer
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28
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15
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OptionProbability
Cascading failure (like something went wrong and the recovery procedure had an issue that made it worse)
Loss of synchronism
Strain on electrical/transmission infrastructure principally caused by renewable energy sources
Low or insufficient inertia
Battery storage
Renewables made the grid less stable
Never found root cause
Accidental infrastructure damage (fallen tower, wildlife, etc)
Bad weather
The cause didn't originate in Spain (was propagated by EU grid)
Intended infrastructure damage (cable cut, bomb, etc)
It's declared a cyber attack
Cyber attack & Russia-funded
Cyber attack & independent group
"Intern plugged wrong cable"
Cyber attack & USA-funded
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12
9
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1
OptionVotes
NO
YES
306
33
OptionVotes
YES
NO
1232
812
OptionProbability
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Put the chili in a taco
Tip every user who bet YES on this option 69 Mana while preparing the chili
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Make the chili "bigly"
Make the chili great again
Make the chili the bestest, bigliest chili in the land
Trumpify the chili
Vote for the chili
Turn the chili into a metaphor (NOT a simile) for the best moment of your life
Make it edible and throw it in
Make the chili "big league"
Season with your heart
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Assume the chili is in the interval [0,1], take the square root for less chili, if it is not in (0,1), square it, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Assume the chili is continuous. Then find an antiderivative of the chili.
Reboot the chili
Translate the chili
Replace a local church's communion with the chili (you can choose whether it replaces the bread or the wine)
The
Put pure resiniferatoxin in it (16 billion scoville heat units)
Add a teaspoon of powdered thorium (chemical symbol Th)
Commit armed robbery against the chili for its mana. (the chili's account is @EliezerYudkowsky)
Take the square root of the chili
Deport the chili
Forgo the concept of chili
AI-generate the chili
Add a different temperature to the current one
Use the chili as ink to write in DONALD J TRUMP down the ballot
Add SpaghettiOs
Make Chidi's chili from The Good Place (add peeps and M&Ms)
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78
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27
24
16
0
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0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
310
82
OptionProbability
Australia Win Game
Australia Win Toss
Australia Bowl First
Winner by innings
Draw
Smith 100
Cummins 5fa
Boland MOTM
Root 100
Tie
66
50
50
34
34
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34
34
1
OptionProbability
Change spacecraft's re-entry trajectory
Other
Partially disassemble the spacecraft
Cancel the Artemis program
Ignore the issue and proceed with determining the root cause
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18
5
5
5
OptionProbability
Australia Win Game
Australia Win Toss
Australia Bat First
Someone announces retirement during the game
Winner by innings
Smith 100
Hazelwood 5fa
Lose a whole day due to rain
Root 100
Draw
66
50
50
50
34
34
34
34
34
34
OptionVotes
YES
NO
120
83