OptionProbability
Direct commercial flights to the EU resume
Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment
Partial mobilization formally ends
Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)
Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow
New FSB director appointed
Amnesty for draft evasion announced
New prime minister appointed
Early State Duma elections called
Russia militarily invades another country
Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor
Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation
Russia rejoins the Council of Europe
Vladimir Putin ceases to be the president of Russia
58
51
44
42
40
39
38
37
36
31
24
