RTÉ Investigates News

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)

Trump creates tariffs of 10% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp)

Second Muslim ban

Trump pardons at least 5 individuals convicted of crimes related to the January 6 Capitol riot

Trump and Musk will have a falling out which leads to Trump removing Musk from any government role or advisory position

Trump creates tariffs of 60% or more on all imports from some major country (top 10 gdp), and they are in place for at least a month

Doug Burgum is appointed to a cabinet position

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 people

Displaying the trans pride flag illegal in any part of USA

$TSLA reaches $400 a share

price of gold reaches historic maximum (last peak 2709 $/t.oz, Oct-2024 last, so it has to be above that)

plays golf with some head of government/president from Europe

Elon Musk is an employee of the executive branch

RFK is confirmed by the Senate for any position

Trump greatly reduces, dismantles, or recommends dismantling of the US Postal service (for example via bringing back Schedule F)

Passports bearing X gender marker no longer issued, or not considered valid across all 50 states

Federal employees are ordered to go to work

Government shutdown

A cabinet nomination fails, is withdrawn, or has no action taken

Trump declassifies JFK files

John Bolton indicted

A natural-born US citizen (as defined in 2024) is deported

Trump says multiple consecutive words in a foreign language (not loanwords or cognates in or from english)

At least 10 other answers on this market resolve YES

NIH -25% funded in any year vs. 2024 (inflation-adjusted)

NOAA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

New James Bond actor is presented

"The New Norm" ends

Trump brings back (or attempts to bring back) Schedule F classification for civil service employees

trump's episode on JRE becomes JRE's most viewed video on his chanel (YT)

Elon will Tweet abour $DOGE as head of DoGE

trump gets hospitalized

Mike Johnson is no longer House Speaker

FEMA gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Cannabis is removed from Schedule 1

Investigations of university admissions that appear to be illegally considering the race of applicants

Democrats have 218 or more seats in the House of Representatives

Successfully negotiate a Gaza ceasefire

Mike Johnson is no longer leader of the House Republican Conference

At least 20 other answers on this market resolve YES

DOJ opens "civil rights investigations" into left-wing DA/prosecutors offices

United States reaches 7.6 or lower in Democracy index (EIU)

any hormone replacement therapy drug outlawed for treating gender dysphoria in any state

Trump finishes is term on Jan 20 2029 (does not step down or extends his term)

Fair elections in 2028

Trump imposes universal tariffs of 10% or more

The US leaves the World Health Organization

memberberries appear again in any new episode in this period on south park

Republican lose a House seat in a special election

doomsday clock is moved twice, regardless of direction (so far 25 times, as of Nov-2024)

Approval < 35%

A new supreme court justice appointed

2% milk > $5 a gallon at my local Walmart

The Supreme Court will uphold or not revisit Obergefell v. Hodges (the constitutional right to same-sex marriage)

A former Democratic presidential nominee besides Jimmy Carter or Joe Biden dies

Trump makes a public statement about UFOs / UAPs

Polymarket becomes legal in the United States

A wound will be inflict upon the soul of the American nation that shan't heal

The administration recommends removing fluoride from U.S. public water systems

Gavin Newsom announces his candidacy for the 28' presidential election

Complete Absence Federal Grants or Legislative packages for Long COVID research

The Supreme Court will have a MAGA majority (5 Trump appointed judges) at any point

Trump gives himself a nickname in third person

2 more Democratic politicians are murdered after June 14th 2025

Vances have another kid

USA experiences a recession.

US Invasion of any North/South American country

plays golf with some head of government/president from Middle East

A person or business is charged for distributing Mifepristone or HRT under the Comstock act

Hakeem Jeffries out as house majority/minority leader

Clarence Thomas is no longer a Supreme Court Justice

There is a cut in Social Security Disability Benefits

plays golf with some head of government/president from Korea (N.Korea included)

At least one cabinet officer receives a recess appointment

3 or more people are killed by law enforcement during a protest

Trump makes no public appearances for more than 14 consecutive days

Russo-Ukrainian War ends

At least 25 other answers on this market resolve YES

p diddy gets released (not an album, only official release from prison is counted)

there are less or equal number of member countries of the UN at the end of the term, when compared to the beginning (Nov-2024 - 193)

New

Joe Biden dies

Deadly force deliberately used against protestors in the US

Dow rises above 65,000

Someone in Trumps family (other than trump) runs in the 2028 GOP primaries

Samuel Alito is no longer a supreme court justice

US national bitcoin reserve created

Amtrak gets reduced, crippled, or privatized

Trump vetoes more than 10 bills (https://www.senate.gov/legislative/vetoes/vetoCounts.htm)

Donald Trump and Donald Tusk shake hands

McDonald's reopens in Russia

Trump declares war against any other nation or defacto autonomous territory

A measurable decrease in chronic disease

Someone other than Trump is active president before Trump's term is over

The Senate invokes the "nuclear option" to bypass cloture after Sept ‘25

Trump mentions "Top Trump(s)", "trump card(s)", "trumpet(s)", or "trump(ing)" (british slang for farting)

A major war in Asia occurs

IRS investigation of Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics

Trump attempts to invoke Article 2 Section 3 to adjourn Congress

John Thune out as Senate Majority Leader

Bitcoin becomes a US Treasury reserve

Trump bans a specific vaccine nationwide

A federal employee goes to prison over free speech violations

Israel officially annexes more Western Bank territory

Severance of diplomatic relations initiated by at least one foreign country with the US

A member of the Trump family is elected to Congress

Trump makes no public appearance for more than 21 consecutive days

Trump endorses a candidate other than JD Vance in the Republican presidential primary

Trump publishes a proscription list at least 30 names long

Anthony Fauci is investigated by the federal government

Trump mentions Manifold Markets, Polymarket, or Kalshi

A member of the Trump family runs for Congress

New national park created

his endorsed option gets higher ## of votes on the election 2028

Elon Musk will become the 'secretary of cost-cutting' / efficiency commission leader / head of DOGE or similar

Trump gets covid (again)

Trump says a racial slur

Trump visits Africa

Tesla

Trump announces he is tired of winning

The Supreme Court will grant certiorari to hear at least one case challenging Griswold v. Connecticut (contraception rights)

inflation exceeds 5% for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters

The US military detonates a MOAB with at least one casualty

military deployed to enforce the border in Chicago or Detroit

China starts a physical invasion of Taiwan

A state openly refuses to abide by a federal supreme court ruling

Birth rate increases past 12 per 1000

AGI achieved (according to Manifold's AGI clock)

transgender US passports with a gender other than that assigned at birth revoked

Saudi Arabia recognizes Israel

Senate majority flips in 2026 midterm elections

The department of education gets desolved

Congress overrides a presidential veto

Invasion of any North/South American country by any other country

<1.5 million civilian federal employees

US military deployed domestically against >=1 US citizen (variants of "Seal Team 6 the opposition")

Trump and Obama shake hands

RFK implements his "wellness farm" plan

Sotomayor’s seat is re-filled

Constitutional Amendment

Anthony Fauci is indicted

Missiles will be fired across the border at suspected drug labs in Mexico

Record level unemployment

Repeal obamacare

MLK day gets renamed or removed as a federal holiday

JD Vance elected President

Trump attempts to restore >10% of USAID's pre-DOGE funding

Trump publicly speaks with Alex Jones (e.g., on a show or hosted by him or as an advisor)

10% fewer government agencies

Another pandemic

55 or more Republican senate seats

54 or more Republican senate seats

American Manned Lunar Landing

Trump says anything that is pro animal rights

Trump suggests lowering or abolishing the age of consent (including jokes)

Steve Bannon goes to prison again

One or more of Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Liz Cheney, or Barack Obama is indicted by the federal government

Iran acquires a nuclear weapon

Starship lands on Mars

Trump admits that someone else is smarter than him

Approval < 25%

H5N1 Public Health Emergency of International Concern declared

The google trends (worldwide) metric for "vibes" goes back to 2016 levels

Trump dies

Laura Loomer gets any government role

RFK is in charge of the FDA at any point

Independent Republican Caucus forms in house or senate and enters coalition with Democrats

China successfully subjugates Taiwan, whether physically or by a treaty

Recess appointment to SCOTUS

A bill introducing single-payer healthcare system is passed by congress

Trump supports mask or glove mandate anywhere in the US

Trump runs for a third term

Trump is seen shirtless

south park is canceled/discontinued

Department of Defense renamed to Department of War

A Millenium Prize problem falls to a model

Trump loses the comb-over hairstyle

Trump bans Lab-grown meat nationwide

Trump deports 1 million immigrants in a calendar year

Trump gets shot

Ukraine controls any portion of Crimea for over a day

Anther story / scandal about RFK and some dead wild animal comes out

Cannabis is federally legalized

Josh Shapiro wins the presidential nomination

Trump resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

John Roberts is no longer Chief Justice of the United States

BTC falls below $38,000

The cause of the drones present in December 2024 in New Jersey is known

Anthony Fauci goes to prison

Trump mentions by name any real historical figure who lived entirely in the first half of recorded history i.e. before ~550 BC

Vance resigns or is forced to leave office (threats, impeachment, coups)

Trump lowers or eliminates income taxes across all tax brackets

The construction of the Third Temple begins in Jerusalem

Trump extends his term past 4 years

TSM stock price plunges to 60 USD

A national ban on gender-affirming care

Trump bans/taxes seed/vegetable oils or enacts any other negative incentive against them

Constitutional Amendment

Elon Musk assassinated or injured in an attempt

Barron Trump mentions barons, barrenness, bars, or bears

The ICC or ICJ issue an arrest warrant for Trump

Trump bans abortion nationwide

another troupe (at least 3) of monkeys escapes from Yamassee, SC (after 8-NOV-2024)

An amendment imposing term limits on members of congress is passed.

"covfefe" posted again

2% milk < $2 a gallon at my local Walmart

Trump mentions Leopold Aschenbrenner or his essay "Situational Awareness" in any way

Trump mentions the Rationalism movement, LessWrong, or Slate Star Codex / Astral Codex Ten

Elon will tweet about $DOGE while running DoGE

A sex tape comes out that shows Trump thrusting energetically

Trump uses the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to deport at least 5 million people

Trump goes to eat steak or something similar at Salt Bae's

Trump is assassinated

30 year treasury rate >15.00%

New US national anthem

Ann Selzer arrested

Trump discloses intelligent Aliens are real and on Earth. (Also counts if they were on earth but left or died out)

Trump will imitate Elon Musk's heartfelt salute

Ukraine starts a nuclear weapons program

Trump fulfills promise of giving green cards to noncitizen university graduates.

Major Yellowstone caldera scare

Trump enacts jus primae noctis

Trump mentions the Effective Altruism movement

Trump gets poisoned ends up in hospital

Trump loses the fake tan

Trump publicly approves of Project 2025, before 2026

Anthony Fauci is convicted

Trump accurately voices a calculation that involves 2+ numbers with 2+ non-zero digits

Trump builds a complete wall across the Mexico-US border

Matt Gaetz is confirmed for any role in the executive branch of the US government

Trump wholeheartedly apologises for something political he did without caveats or backtracking

Trump and Melania divorce

SpaceX is nationalized

wants to compete for 3rd term, but due to catastrophic debate, he remains president, while the v.p. becomes the official candidate

Donald Trump say the n-word with or without hard r

Trump bans all vaccines nationwide

Trump forces Ivanka to divorce Jared and marry either Vance or Musk

Trump says "Vriska did nothing wrong"

A hurricane will be nuked

Jimmy Carter dies

A second major version of the model has been released

It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo

Video will include sound

For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs

OpenAI will be sued over the model

It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"

By default, the generated videos will be watermarked

A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space

A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements

A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month

A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet

It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)

It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)

It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)

It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes

It will be free to use

It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation

A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views

It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform

It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription

It will be the SOTA for text to video

It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names

costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50

A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show

It will be jailbroken to make a porn video

At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header

It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website

it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country

A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month

A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views

Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored

The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian

It can generate videos over 10 minutes long

OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model

Sora will be part of GPT model

Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization

The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather

A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora

There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives

The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes

A third major version of the model has been released

It has been renamed

Full description of model architecture will be public

OpenAI will release the number of model parameters

It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)

A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market

Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization

US bombs Iran’s nuclear facility

Iran bomb a gulf country (inclusive of offshore platforms)

UN Security Council proposes a cease-fire resolution

Iran fires missiles that land within 50km of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem

Iranian General killed inside Iran

Donald Trump declares victory

Iranian government official declares victory

China attempts to broker a cease-fire/peace deal

US ally publicy condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

G7 member publicly condemns actions of US in regard to conflict

Trump's June 23 Cease-fire announcement is honored for at least 7 days

Iran imposes a nationwide internet shutdown lasting ≥ 24 hours

War Ends in June

500+ Iranian civilians killed

War ends in 2025

US aid to Israel exceeds $17.9 billion for calendar year

Fordow facility successfully bombed

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 25%

Israel confirmed to have deployed troops on Iranian soil

Multiple Iranian government members chant "death to [non-NATO country]"

Iran is back to negotiations with US about a nuclear deal

A terrorist event planned by Iran in a 3rd country targeting Israelis or Jews is successfully executed (5+ deaths)

Natanz Nuclear Facility destroyed

Israel publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

Hezbollah initiates attacks on Israel (2 or more days of strikes, publicly announced by Hezbollah)

There is a major Iranian cyberattack against the United States.

Civilian manned aircraft destroyed in Iran, Iraq, Syria, Jordan, or Israel airspace

Iranian national arrested for espionage in USA

Wikipedia lists Syria as a beligerent for more than 24 hours

The International Criminal Court opens a formal war-crimes investigation tied to the 2025 Israel-Iran conflict

A poll indicates US citizen support for involvement of US in conflict is less than 10%

Coverage of ICE protests never recovers following the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites

>=1 USA servicemember killed in connection with this conflict

At least one UNESCO World Heritage site in Israel or Iran is officially reported damaged by hostilities

A second cease-fire is announced

USA vetoes a proposed UN cease-fire resolution

Iran seizes a G7-flagged ship in Hormuz

>=1 USA civilian killed in connection with this conflict

Iran publicly accused of violating a UN cease-fire resolution by the United Nations or a major international body

North Korea provides material support to Iran (weapons, money, etc.)

Turkey invokes NATO Article 4 consultations over the Israel-Iran conflict

Israel government dissolves

USA conducts a second bombing in Iran

Israel uses an EMP or directed energy weapon

A fifth generation fighter jet is destroyed

Straight of Hormuz is closed for less than 72 hours

Russia stations combat jets on Iran soil

Several terrorist attacks on U.S. soil causes casualties ( at least 2 attacks and 1 death)

Iran officially exits the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty

Iran launches a cruise missile

Cease-fire broken by any party, causing conflict to resume

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei replaced for any reason

Iran successfully bomb an Israeli civilian power plant or offshore platform

Iranian national arrested for planning/executing terrorism in USA

Holy sites of Israel are destroyed after the war.

Ayatollah Khamenei dies unnaturally

Cease-fire resolution passed by UN Security Council

Iran cause a mass casualty event (20+ deaths) by a single missle in Israel

Israel targets Iranian *production* or *export* oriented energy facility (refineries and storage for internal use don’t count)

Iran tests a nuclear weapon

A warship exceeding 1000 tons is sank

State with >250k active military personnel joins war on side of Iran

Any amount of Israeli Merkava tanks are destroyed

Iranian government dissolves

UN Security Council passes new Iran arms embargo with no vetoes

Tel-aviv stock exchange closes for a full trading day

Major media source (BBC, NYT, Fox, CNN, etc.) refers to American involvement as "Iraq 2.0" or similar

Saudi Arabia attacks Iran

WTI Crude futures reach 90usd/bll (NYME:CL.1)

Qatar attacks Iran

War ends in July

≥ 100 000 people flee Iran into Turkey or Iraq as registered refugees because of the conflict

Iran regime change

Netanyahu is replaced for any reason (no longer acting prime minister)

Transitional Iranian government headed by Reza Pahlavi

There is a major foreign or terrorist attack on U.S. soil that kills 100+ people.

Will resolve to the number of days until a ceasefire (max 100). Ceasefire: one airspace is opened (at the very least). Stars June 21 2025

Brent crude closes ≥ $130 per barrel before 1 Jan 2026

Total casualties exceed 10,000

US invasion (boots on the ground, special forces not included)

Russia delivers S-400 (or better) air defense system to Iran

Iranian government official killed via small arms fire/special operations (not air/drone strike)

Trump is frustrated that even by bombing another country he still can’t get any woman to find him attractive

A nuclear weapon is used offensively.

Two or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Many of them are hobbyist drones looking for/chasing the "original" drones

The drones will have mostly vanished by inauguration

They record images/video using digital cameras

More drones are flying at night after a Sept 2023 change in FAA regulations, leading to an increase in sightings

Belong to a hobbyist

Local officials lack equipment sensitive enough to gauge size and relative threat

It's just hysteria/mistaken sightings

Four or more propositions in this market excluding this one will resolve as true/yes

Their true nature will remain a mystery

Uses cellular networks to send and receive data

Linked to illegal drug activity

Some drones use advanced technology not available to the public

Belong to an activist

Redditor on r/UFOs (post with >= 10k upvotes) claims abduction by drones

An adversary is trying to force the US's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech

Major Mexican TV network runs story implying drones are alien tech

they're designed to look like a commercial jet

Does not use cellular networks to send and receive data

Belong to a start-up

Belong to a large company

Someone will attempt to shoot down a drone and end up injuring themselves or others

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a US adversary

Linked to China (government/military)

Belong to the US military/gov

At least 1 drone is shot down and recovered

Are investigating Plasmoids

They’re looking for ionizing radiation

Hoax put on specifically by Anthpo

Operated by (foreign) intelligence agency / military of a country allied to the US

Linked to Russia (government/military)

Are investigating Gamma Radiation

It's a publicity stunt for a company

Belong to a foreign government/agency

Linked to Blockchain technology

AI superintelligence

Terrorism

It's a new delivery service

Linked to North Korea

100% of all footage of the drones was AI generated

Secret private industry ARVs investigating the orbs individuals are summoning through meditation.

15-Minute Cities

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Decolonization

Multipolarity / Multipolar World

Transhumanism

Nuance

Academic freedom

Stakeholder-Capitalism

Techno-optimist

Consent-Based Policing / Peelian Principles

Love

Civilian Casualties / Protection of Civilians Mandate

Investigative journalism

Direct democracy

Peacebuilding

AI Alignment

Human rights

Freedom

Experience

Relationship Anarchy

Department of Education

Federal Statistical Agencies

Transportation Security Administration (TSA)

National Weather Service

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Internal Revenue Service

Public Broadcasting Service (PBS)

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB)

National Institutes of Health

Consumer Financial Protection Bureau

Bureau of Alcohol, Firearms, and Tobacco

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA)

National Park Service (NPS)

Small Business Administration

Federal Bureau of Investigations

Freddie Mac

Ginnie Mae

Fannie Mae

The Supreme Court

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

US Postal Service

"designate cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations"

"defend your Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms"

"end catch-and-release, restore Remain in Mexico, and eliminate asylum fraud"

empower the President to impose reciprocal tariffs

"lower taxes"

"deputize the National Guard and local law enforcement to assist with rapidly removing illegal alien gang members and criminals"

"keep men out of women’s sports"

"increase penalties for assaults on law enforcement"

"open Civil Rights investigations into any school district that has engaged in race-based discrimination"

"order the Department of Defense to inflict maximum damage on cartel leadership and operations"

"reward states and school districts that abolish teacher tenure for grades K-12 and adopt Merit Pay"

"REVOKE China’s Most Favored Nation trade status"

"stop all COVID mandates"

"more jobs for American workers"

"deliver a merit-based immigration system that protects American labor and promotes American values"

"cut the number of school administrators"

"choke off [cartels'] access to the global financial system"

"cut federal funding for any school or program pushing Critical Race Theory or gender ideology on our children"

"ask Congress to ensure that drug smugglers and traffickers can receive the Death Penalty"

"strengthen qualified immunity and other protections for police officers"

"uphold your religious liberty, including the Constitutional right to pray in public schools"

"bigger paychecks"

"implement a 4-year national reshoring plan so that the United States no longer needs to rely on China for essential medical and national security goods"

"put violent offenders and career criminals behind bars"

"build a state-of-the-art next-generation missile defense shield"

"surge federal prosecutors and the National Guard into high-crime communities"

"adopt a Parental Bill of Rights"

"banning taxpayer funds from being used to categorize lawful speech for purposes of illicit censorship"

"banning federal agencies from censoring speech"

"passing a digital bill of rights"

"enacting landmark legislation to drastically limit the ability of big social media platforms to restrict free speech"

declassify the 'Epstein files'

"stopping federal funding for all non-profits and academic programs engaged in censorship"

"create a credentialing body to certify teachers who embrace patriotic values"

"pass a bold range of critical election integrity measures that include banning unsecure drop boxes and ballot harvesting"

"deliver record funding to hire and retrain police officers"

"veto the sinister effort to weaponize civics education"

"increase fairness through price transparency"

"reduce the soaring price of gasoline, diesel and natural gas"

"get the full cooperation of neighboring governments to dismantle the cartels, or else expose every bribe and kickback that allows these criminal networks to preserve their brutal reign"

"continue to nominate highly qualified prosecutors, judges, and justices who believe in enforcing the law, not their own political agenda"

"protect Medicare, Social Security, and patients with pre-existing conditions"

"reduce the cost of prescription drugs and health insurance premiums"

"firing any federal bureaucrat who has engaged in censoring the lawful speech of American citizens"

"ban private money from pouring into local election offices"

"get Biden’s radical left ideology out of our military and rehire every patriot who was unjustly fired"

"a ban on members of Congress trading stocks with insider information"

"end surprise medical billing"

"ban Chinese ownership of all critical infrastructure in the United States"

"reform our election laws to verify the identity and eligibility of all voters"

"impose a total naval embargo on cartels"

"a permanent ban on taxpayer funding of campaigns"

"a lifetime ban on lobbying by former members of Congress and cabinet members"

"implement the direct election of school principals by the parents"

"a constitutional amendment to impose term limits on members of Congress"

Initiation and Investigation: A member or committee of the House of Representatives begins impeachment proceedings. The House Judiciary Committee investigates the allegations of misconduct

Charges: If the committee finds sufficient evidence, it acts as a prosecutor and brings charges against the judge.

The U.S. Court of Appeals or the Supreme Court overturns Judge Engelmayer's ruling to block Executive cabinet and staffers from accessing U.S. Treasury records, and no impeachment proceedings are initiated by May 9, 2025.

House Votes YES to Impeach: The entire House of Representatives votes on the impeachment. A simple majority is required to impeach the judge.

John Bolton – Former National Security Advisor under President Trump

John Brennan – Former Director of the CIA under President Obama, currently a Senior National Security and Intelligence Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

James Comey – Former FBI Director

James Clapper – Former Director of National Intelligence under President Obama, currently a National Security Analyst at CNN

John Carlin – Acting Deputy Attorney General, former head of National Security Division at DoJ during the Russia Gate investigation by FBI

Hillary Clinton – Former Democrat Party Nominee for President and Former Secretary of State under President Obama

Merrick Garland – Attorney General under President Biden

Kamala Harris – Vice President of the United States

Loretta Lynch – Former Attorney General under President Obama

Susan Rice – Former National Security Advisor under President Obama, currently Director of the Domestic Policy Council under President Biden

Alexander Vindman – Former Director for European Affairs on the NSC under President Trump

Andrew McCabe – Former Deputy Director of the FBI under President Trump

Fiona Hill – Former NSC staffer who worked with Vindman and Ciaramella

John Podesta – Former Counselor to President Obama

Lisa Page – Former Legal Counsel for Deputy Director of the FBI Andrew McCabe and currently a National Security and Legal Analyst at NBC and MSNBC

Eric Holder – Former Attorney General under President Obama and current Senior Counsel at Covington law firm

Robert Mueller – Former Director of the FBI and Special Counsel

Stephen Boyd – Former head of Legislative Affairs at DoJ under Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein

Sally Yates – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Obama and briefly the Acting Attorney General under President Trump

Evelyn Farkas – Former DoD official under President Obama

Lloyd Austin – Secretary of Defense under President Biden

Mark Milley – Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff

Jake Sullivan – National Security Advisor under President Biden

Christopher Wray – Director of the FBI under President Trump and President Biden, former partner at King & Spalding

James Baker – Former General Counsel for the FBI, currently a member of the Brookings Institute, former Deputy General Counsel at Twitter

Eric Ciaramella – Former NSC staffer within the Obama and Trump administrations

Mark Esper – Former Secretary of Defense under President Trump

Lisa Monaco – Deputy Attorney General of the United States

Pat Philbin – Former Deputy White House Counsel under President Trump

Peter Strzok – Former Deputy Assistant Director of the FBI's Counterintelligence Division

Michael Sussmann – Former legal representative for the Democratic National Committee and former partner at Perkins Coie law firm

Robert Hur – Special Counsel to investigate Biden and former PADAG under Rosenstein

Andrew Weissman – Former Deputy under Special Counsel Mueller

Michael Atkinson – Former Intelligence Community Inspector General

Pat Cipollone – Former White House Counsel under President Trump

Timothy Thibault – Former Assistant Special Agent at the FBI's Washington Field Office

Joe Biden – President of the United States

Cassidy Hutchinson – Aide to Mark Meadows

Brian Auten – Supervisory Intelligence Analyst within the FBI

Bill Barr – Former Attorney General under President Trump

Elizabeth Dibble – Former Deputy Chief of Mission at the US Embassy in London

Sarah Isgur Flores – Former Head of Communications at DoJ for AG Sessions

Stephanie Grisham – Former Press Secretary for President Trump and Chief of Staff for Melania Trump

Gina Haspel – Former Director of the CIA under President Trump and current advisor at King & Spalding law firm

Curtis Heide – FBI Agent

Nina Jankowicz – Former Executive Director of the Disinformation Governance Board in the Biden administration

Lois Lerner – Former Director of the IRS under President Obama

Charles Kupperman – Former Deputy National Security Advisor under President Trump

Kenneth Mackenzie – Retired US Marine Corps General and former Commander of the United States Central Command

Ryan McCarthy – Former Secretary of the Army under President Trump

Mary McCord – Former Acting Assistant Attorney General for National Security at the DoJ and currently the Executive Director for the Georgetown Law Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection

Denis McDonough – Former Chief of Staff for President Obama and currently Secretary of Veterans Affairs

Sally Moyer – Former Supervisory Attorney at the FBI and currently Legal Counsel at Cloudflare

Bruce Ohr – Former Associate Deputy Attorney General

Samantha Power – Former Ambassador to the United Nations under President Obama, currently Administrator of the United States Agency for International Development

Bill Priestap – Former Assistant Director for the FBI Counterintelligence Division

Rod Rosenstein – Former Deputy Attorney General under President Trump and current partner at King & Spalding law firm

Miles Taylor – Former DHS official under President Trump, aka "Anonymous"

Alyssa Farah – Former Director of Strategic Communications under President Trump

Deadly autonomous vehicle accident with driver present

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI written code

Cybersecurity incident caused by AI inference in production

Any incident involving prompt injection in production

Another deadly crime planned with the use of LLMs (after Trump hotel explosion)

[Duplicate]

Any incident that results in internal investigation, caused by the use of AI by law enforcement

Deadly incident involving autonomous manufacturing equipment

Serious incident involving persuasion or blackmail by AI system

Deadly incident involving autonomous military equipment

Serious incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

Deadly incident caused by AI medical system or equipment

Cybersecurity incident that can be directly attributed to misaligned agent behavior

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2026

Will he have a child by mid 2026? Best wishes to him and his family

He writes a book which appears on the nytimes bestseller list by mid 2029

He joins George Mason University by mid 2026

He spends at least a year overseas by mid 2029

He wins a Nobel prize by mid 2036

He joins Manifold and is verified by mid 2026

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2024

He moves to another university, away from Harvard by mid 2025

He retires from academic life by mid 2024

Harvard withdraws or softens the results of the investigations which found against him by mid 2025

Study that investigates short-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings

Study conducted and released by 2040

Study conducted and released by 2035

Study that investigates long-term effects of DMT as a treatment has positive findings