Rules Committee News

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

May 19, 5:35 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

5.23%chance

3811901

OptionVotes

YES

3916

589

What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?

Jun 25, 7:00 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2211068

OptionProbability

2026

2027

not by 2032

2025

2028

2031

2029

2032

2030

2023

2024

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

May 19, 5:36 PMDec 31, 11:00 PM

88.24%chance

182653

OptionVotes

YES

2633

503

Who will be the next Republican Speaker/Minority Leader after Mike Johnson?

Feb 21, 10:29 PMJan 3, 7:59 AM

382562

OptionProbability

Steve Scalise (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect)

Other

Mike Johnson Again (after being removed from power, then put back in power)

Jim Jordan (Previous Republican Speaker-Elect)

Elise Stefanik (Republican Conference Chairman)

Byron Donalds (Previous Speaker contender)

Tom Emmer (Republican Whip, previous Speaker-Elect)

Tom Cole (Chair of the House Rules Committee)

Gary Palmer (Republican Policy Committee Chairman, Previous Speaker contender)

Kevin Hern (Previous Speaker contender)

Jack Bergman (Previous Speaker contender)

Austin Scott (Previous Speaker contender)

Chuck Fleischmann (Previous Speaker contender)

Mark Green (Previous Speaker contender)

Roger Williams (Previous Speaker contender)

Jodey Arrington (Previous Speaker contender)

Donald Trump (Republican Candidate for President)

Patrick McHenry (Previous Republican Speaker pro tempore)

Kevin McCarthy (Previous Republican Speaker)

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

Feb 18, 11:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.6%chance

11602

OptionVotes

YES

1322

757

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

May 15, 2:16 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.83%chance

4102

OptionVotes

YES

156

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Jun 29, 5:46 AMSep 20, 11:59 PM

172

OptionProbability

49 or fewer

58 or more

Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies?

Apr 30, 11:45 PMOct 1, 11:43 PM

53.04%chance

247

OptionVotes

YES

216

204

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

100

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

Mar 19, 8:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

110

Rules Committee News

Prediction markets for Rules Committee

Prediction markets for Rules Committee

Prediction markets for Rules Committee

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2025?

What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?

Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?

Who will be the next Republican Speaker/Minority Leader after Mike Johnson?

Will Kemi Badenoch face a Vote of No Confidence before 1st January 2027?

If we sue our HVAC contractor for charging us travel fees when we have a warranty on labor, will we win?

How many votes to confirm Mike Waltz as UN Ambassador by September 19?

Brazilian Congressman Glauber Braga's mandate revoked by Chamber of Deputies?

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Brazil outlaws racial identity verification panels before 2030?

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