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Prediction markets for Russia

Will the Russia-Ukraine war end before the end of 2025?

Jun 22, 11:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.24%chance

534372613

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2391

505

How will the Ukraine-Russia border look like in 2030?

Jul 2, 9:32 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

662140340

OptionProbability

Ukraine ceding more than Crimea to Russia

Pre-2022: Crimea controlled by Russia but not more

Pre-2014: Crimea controlled by Ukraine

No cease-fire of 6 months

No Ukraine anymore

No Russia anymore

78

7

6

6

3

1

Will Trump visit Russia during his term?

Nov 10, 4:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.96%chance

482101789

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2209

1774

(10k subsidy) 1 year after Putin, who will be the apparent leader of Russia?

Oct 24, 3:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6361665

OptionProbability

Other

Nikolai Patrushev

Mikhail Mishustin

Dmitry Medvedev

Chaos - no clear controller of Moscow

Aleksey Dyumin

Sergei Shoigu

Aleksandr Bortnikov

Sergey Naryshkin

Sergei Sobyanin

Ramzan Kadyrov

Alexey Navalny

Yulia Navalny

44

13

10

7

7

5

4

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin while he is still Russia's president?

Nov 13, 6:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20%chance

14533187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1464

1157

Will Russia launch an invasion against at least one of the Baltic states by February 2029?

Nov 6, 4:14 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

25.95%chance

7132188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9413

7321

Will russia occupy kyiv at any point before 2030?

May 11, 12:09 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

19%chance

3229069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

206

48

Will Vladimir Putin stop being president of Russia before Volodymyr Zelensky stops being president of Ukraine?

Aug 29, 8:41 PMOct 7, 8:59 PM

24.44%chance

14217223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2734

1516

Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?

Jun 11, 7:40 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

59.49%chance

465652

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1212

825

Will Elon Musk visit Russia in 2025?

Feb 23, 6:30 AMJan 1, 8:59 PM

21.31%chance

262111

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2688

924

Division of FSB (or whole FSB, or Russia) recognized as terrorist organization by Russia or US or UK or EU or UN by 2030

Jul 13, 9:23 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

46.34%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2091

1916

When will the "Has Elon Musk been bought by Russia?" market resolve?

Aug 10, 3:07 AMJun 30, 2:47 AM

00

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