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Who will be the next Mayor of London after Sadiq Khan?

Apr 3, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13659

OptionProbability

Other

Laila Cunningham

Thomas Skinner

Stella Creasy

Sebastian Coe

Mete Coban

Dawn Butler

Ant Middleton

Rosena Allin-Khan

Florence Eshalomi

David Lammy

Shaun Bailey

Jeremy Corbyn

Rory Stewart

Zoe Garbett

Rushanara Ali

Susan Hall

James Corden

37

24

7

6

6

6

4

4

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will "I'll be sad to lose the puzzles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.91%chance

2550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

931

Best Album at 2027 Grammy Award ceremony?

Apr 13, 12:29 PMFeb 1, 11:59 PM

11463

OptionProbability

Olivia Rodrigo, You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love

Olivia Dean, The Art of Loving

Phoebe Bridgers [tbc]

Other

Hayley Kiyoko, Girls like Girls

Gracie Abrams, Daughter from Hell

M.I.A., M.I.7.

Goose, Big Modern!

Ella Langley, Dandelion

Rosalia, Lux

Drake, Iceman

Flea, Honora

Alter Bridge, Alter Bridge

ASAP Rocky, Don't Be Dumb

Nick Jonas, Sunday Best

Charli XCX, Wuthering Heights

Mumford & Sons, Prizefighter

Gorillaz, The Mountain

Hillary Duff, Luck. . . Or Something

Yungblud, Idols II

BLACKPINK, DEADLINE

BTS, Arirang

Nine Inch Nails, Nine Inch Noize

Demi Lovato, It's Not That Deep

Foo Fighters, Your Favorite Toy

Jason Aldean, Songs About Us

Ariana Grande, Petal

Harry Styles, Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally

Evanescence, Sanctuary

Afroman, Freedom of Speech

Brandi Carlisle, Returning To Myself

Noah Kahan, The Great Divide

Bruno Mars, The Romantic

Taylor Swift, The Life of a Showgirl

Justin Bieber, Swag II

Rob Thomas, All Night Days

Cardi B, Am I the Drama?

Doja Cat, Vie

Tame Impala, Deadbeat

21 Savage, What Happened to the Streets?

Snow tha Product, Before I Crash Out

NOFX, A to H

22

19

7

6

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2027 Album of the Year Grammy nominees

May 23, 2:19 PMNov 15, 11:59 AM

13332

OptionProbability

'The Art of Loving' (Olivia Dean)

'The Life of a Showgirl' (Taylor Swift)

'The Romantic' (Bruno Mars)

'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love' (Olivia Rodrigo)

'Lux' (Rosalia)

'Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally' (Harry Styles)

'Middle of Nowhere' (Kacey Musgraves)

'Petal' (Ariana Grande)

'The Great Divide' (Noah Kahan)

'Dandelion' (Ella Langley)

'This Music May Contain Hope' (Raye)

'Returning to Myself' (Brandi Carlile)

'Arirang' (BTS)

93

89

85

82

57

57

56

54

50

49

49

47

26

Will SADR (Western Sahara) be a sovereign state before 2040?

May 29, 1:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

20.38%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

49

Will Sadiq Khan be nominated as a candidate for the Labour Party leadership before 2030?

Dec 20, 11:11 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

31%chance

3106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will I still be sad by EOY2026?

Jun 9, 6:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.91%chance

377

OptionVotes

NO

YES

127

78

Will Sadhguru announce support the BJP or the Republican Party?

Dec 27, 8:57 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

30.17%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

66

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Dec 27, 8:47 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

45.33%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

107

What will be the most streamed album on Spotify this week?

Aug 7, 4:11 PMAug 14, 11:59 PM

225

OptionProbability

'Petal' (Ariana Grande)

'Arirang' (BTS)

'You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love' (Olivia Rodrigo)

Other

55

15

15

15

Are you sad that Advait didn't win MATHCOUNTS nationals?

May 12, 10:21 PM

100

Does the cat look happy or sad in the image below

Jan 1, 1:34 AM

230

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