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Prediction markets for SAD

Will Manifold solve my puzzle?

Nov 3, 6:25 PMDec 31, 5:55 PM

50%chance

13899183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? [Polymarket]

Nov 6, 11:25 PMAug 5, 10:59 PM

50%chance

6047709

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Who will be the next Mayor of London after Sadiq Khan?

Apr 3, 7:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12645

OptionProbability

Other

Thomas Skinner

Stella Creasy

Sebastian Coe

Mete Coban

Ant Middleton

Dawn Butler

Rosena Allin-Khan

Florence Eshalomi

David Lammy

James Corden

Shaun Bailey

Jeremy Corbyn

Rory Stewart

Zoe Garbett

Rushanara Ali

Susan Hall

45

13

8

8

8

7

3

3

3

2

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will "I'll be sad to lose the puzzles" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 25, 9:03 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

8.91%chance

2550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1550

931

Will I not be sad most of the time by EOY2025?

May 16, 6:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.79%chance

7175

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

57

Will SADR (Western Sahara) be a sovereign state before 2040?

May 29, 1:53 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

20.38%chance

5118

OptionVotes

YES

NO

172

49

Will Sadiq Khan be nominated as a candidate for the Labour Party leadership before 2030?

Dec 20, 11:11 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

31%chance

3106

OptionVotes

YES

NO

149

67

Will Sadhguru announce support the BJP or the Republican Party?

Dec 27, 8:57 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

30.17%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

129

66

Will Sad Braders beat IMB?

Dec 3, 12:50 AMJan 2, 12:48 AM

58.73%chance

342

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

84

Will Ted Cruz meet Sadhguru?

Dec 27, 8:47 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

45.33%chance

331

OptionVotes

YES

NO

113

107

Does the cat look happy or sad in the image below

Jan 1, 1:34 AM

230

sadf

Apr 12, 2:36 AM

30

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