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Prediction markets for SAF

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.23%chance

489899

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6256

4591

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.61%chance

707397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2004

1973

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

837187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.36%chance

777061

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2141

1245

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.86%chance

193027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11784

8486

Who will win the civil war in Sudan?

Aug 26, 12:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

312632

OptionProbability

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Neither

62

22

15

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.12%chance

422538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1889

529

Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?

Jan 10, 7:14 AMJan 1, 7:13 AM

39.07%chance

141203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5646

4071

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

US Senate 2026 """Safe""" Parlay

Feb 28, 12:45 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

42%chance

11399

OptionVotes

YES

NO

141

25

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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