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Prediction markets for SAF

Will Steven Pinker and Scott Alexander have a debate on AI safety in 2026?

Sep 20, 11:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.91%chance

3026097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31979

3127

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.57%chance

5212004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8319

3970

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.92%chance

717647

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2223

1818

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

837187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15.54%chance

777161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2241

1226

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79.24%chance

554762

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1954

512

Who will win the civil war in Sudan?

Aug 26, 12:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

312632

OptionProbability

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

Neither

62

22

15

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

79%chance

432588

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1939

516

Will The Safeway Marina project get approved as proposed?

Jan 10, 7:14 AMJan 1, 7:13 AM

39.07%chance

141203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5646

4071

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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