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Top stories

Sudan’s RSF Seizes El-Uweinat Triangle Border Area With Libya and Egypt, Announces Parallel Government in Nyala

Sudan’s RSF Seizes El-Uweinat Triangle Border Area With Libya and Egypt, Announces Parallel Government in Nyala

Authors

18

1 month ago

Prediction markets for SAF

Will the OpenAI Non-Profit become a major AI Safety research funder? (Announced by end of 2025)

Dec 28, 12:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.98%chance

1923681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22111

4523

If Trump is elected, will the shutdown of the US AI Safety Institute be announced in 2025?

Apr 22, 1:31 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

47.79%chance

387401

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11726

7606

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

827039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.49%chance

716636

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1742

1335

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

75.64%chance

392362

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1762

567

If Trump wins, will the US AI Safety Institute receive an increase in Congressional appropriations for FY26?

Jun 30, 7:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.6%chance

141992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2498

936

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

52.14%chance

161686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

Who will win the civil war in Sudan?

Aug 26, 12:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

251104

OptionProbability

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Neither

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

51

25

24

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40.77%chance

201028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

418

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

61.3%chance

11972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

952

Will there be serious AI safety drama at Google or Deepmind before 2026?

Mar 20, 9:53 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.59%chance

28910

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

676

Latest stories

Latest stories

Jul 3, 2025
Jul 3, 2025
Africa
War
Politics
Sudan’s RSF Seizes El-Uweinat Triangle Border Area With Libya and Egypt, Announces Parallel Government in Nyala
Authors
18
1 month ago

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