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Prediction markets for SAF

Greta Thunberg joins AI safety/pause movement before 2035?

Sep 29, 1:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.62%chance

707353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2017

1968

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

837187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

I am an AI safety researcher with a background in machine learning engineering and neuroscience. Will I personally be able to program and train an AGI for less than $10k by 2030?

Dec 21, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.08%chance

746756

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1862

1305

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?

Jan 6, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.77%chance

172765

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7328

4236

Will the percentage of top graduates in math and CS at elite universities who aspire to AI safety work rise by May 2029?

May 23, 1:22 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

77.79%chance

422533

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1871

534

Who will win the civil war in Sudan?

Aug 26, 12:14 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

302354

OptionProbability

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)

Neither

Rapid Support Forces (RSF)

71

20

9

Will this issue with Rust's type safety be fixed before the release of edition 2027?

Sep 12, 1:14 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

65.19%chance

131082

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1178

888

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.65%chance

18812

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

919

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

May 27, 2:14 PMMay 26, 11:59 PM

73.57%chance

12508

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

1021

By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?

Jun 29, 5:53 PMDec 31, 6:29 AM

72.73%chance

16315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

959

Will medically safe ribcage depth reduction of 3+ inches be commercially available by 2100?

Aug 18, 11:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56.04%chance

7257

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

906

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