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Top stories

China Draws $127 Billion First-Half Inflow as Huijin Pumps Up Equity Support

China Draws $127 Billion First-Half Inflow as Huijin Pumps Up Equity Support

Authors

12

11 days ago

Prediction markets for SAFE

Before 2050, will it become safe and easy to change one's apparent sex at will?

Nov 15, 8:54 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

40%chance

827039

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

902

Will cryopreserved brains at Tomorrow.Bio be safe until the end of 2030?

Aug 4, 10:36 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

84.78%chance

212098

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1770

759

Will OpenAI publicly state that they DON'T know how to safely align a superintelligence, after 2027?

Nov 4, 12:16 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

22.7%chance

241545

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1579

737

Will there be a safe and sustainable way to get JACKED quickly by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:30 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.04%chance

271490

OptionVotes

YES

NO

906

293

Will AGI create a consensus among experts on how to safely increase AI capabilities?

Mar 12, 8:26 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.77%chance

9913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1311

763

Alex Honnold fails to climb safely through 2035

Jun 6, 11:49 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

28.07%chance

19819

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

920

Will the Safe Bet Act 2024 pass?

Sep 12, 10:56 PMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

27.78%chance

7631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1612

620

Will there be a safe and sustainable way of avoiding the need for sleep by 2030?

Jul 18, 8:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5.06%chance

9585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

378

126

Will there be a relatively safe way to increase the IQ of the average adult by 25+ points with under $200k before 2030?

Jul 11, 11:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.2%chance

10296

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1177

956

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Will prioritizing corrigible AI produce safe results?

Mar 12, 8:36 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

44.79%chance

4170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1110

901

Will Blue Origin beat SpaceX to land safely on the moon?

Jul 5, 5:03 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

82.69%chance

6169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

219

46

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