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Prediction markets for SAG

Will the Sagrada Familia church be fully complete by EOY 2026, the 100th anniversary of Antoni Gaudi's death?

Nov 27, 7:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.47%chance

241360

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

875

Will a magazine publish a +8000 word piece about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?

Mar 13, 9:43 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.74%chance

16966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1365

444

Will Sagrada Familia be completed by 2028?

Aug 19, 6:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.9%chance

15947

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1200

897

When will season 2 of Saga of Tanya the Evil release?

Dec 16, 1:19 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

1868

OptionProbability

2025

2026 or later / Doesn't release

Before Summer 2024

Summer 2024

Fall 2024

49

49

1

1

1

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

Will the Sagrada Familia church be fully complete by EOY 2032, the 180th anniversary of Antoni Gaudi's birth?

Nov 27, 7:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.17%chance

17375

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1065

939

Will construction of The Line finish before La Sagrada Familia?

Apr 14, 9:27 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

8.49%chance

6369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

526

56

If I investigate the Oliver Smith saga, will I think that Oliver was overall the more wronged party?

Feb 28, 7:43 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14.92%chance

6266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

239

42

Will a TV show or mini-series be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?

Mar 13, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26%chance

4105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

95

Will a movie be made about the Silicon Valley Bank saga?

Mar 13, 9:44 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.43%chance

8102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

183

Will "Carl Sagan, nuking the moon, and not nuking t..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jul 5, 8:57 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14.08%chance

11

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

994

Should SAG vote to adopt the proposed labor agreement?

Nov 15, 2:28 AM

50

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