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Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.89%chance

4016736

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

223

Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China?

Jun 27, 4:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.35%chance

551926

OptionVotes

NO

YES

321

275

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

421737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

967

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?

Apr 3, 2:34 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

58.75%chance

13827

OptionVotes

NO

YES

233

88

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will "Dissolving the Deep Learning Sample Efficienc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 6, 6:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

35%chance

6110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

91

Will Singapore start taking DNA samples of those who pee or poop on the floor of bathrooms by 2029

Sep 28, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.46%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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