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Prediction markets for Samp

Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

73.93%chance

349620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1758

436

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.64%chance

411714

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1005

945

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will NASA bring back Mars samples to Earth before China?

Jun 27, 4:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

35.21%chance

12631

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will Corning or Murata produced QS separators make their way into a sample cell in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.38%chance

8322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

36

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?

Mar 13, 3:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.27%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

132

Will Tianwen-3 successfully return a sample from Mars?

Sep 23, 12:16 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

45.83%chance

560

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

107

Will isaak freeman take a blood/tissue sample test for microplastics by EOY 2029?

Sep 18, 9:28 PMSep 26, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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