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Prediction markets for Samp

Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

81.97%chance

4318620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2136

330

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

421737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

967

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will a Starship land on Mars before the MSR samples are picked up?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

75.87%chance

13881

OptionVotes

NO

YES

303

88

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Before which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed?

Apr 19, 2:13 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5357

OptionProbability

2075

2065

Not before 2075

2055

2045

2035

27

22

22

17

9

4

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will "Dissolving the Deep Learning Sample Efficienc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 6, 6:42 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.16%chance

2266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1250

964

Will a laboratory reproduce a verified peer reviewed sample of Metallic Hydrogen by the end of 2030?

Mar 17, 9:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.91%chance

6141

OptionVotes

YES

NO

272

158

Will a sample from the Martian system be returned to Earth by an Asian space agency before a Western space agency?

Jun 19, 8:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.2%chance

481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

155

27

Will Singapore start taking DNA samples of those who pee or poop on the floor of bathrooms by 2029

Sep 28, 5:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.46%chance

350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112

89

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