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Prediction markets for Samp

Will the NASA Mars Sample Return Mission be cancelled?

Oct 3, 11:35 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

89.22%chance

4016726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2736

232

Will we be able to clone a human being from a live sample of their DNA by 2040?

Jan 3, 6:37 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

42%chance

421737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

973

967

Will there be >1 kg of sample material sent to Earth from Mars by 2035?

Sep 12, 6:41 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

65.31%chance

171471

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1504

232

When will the first Mars samples be returned to Earth?

Jul 27, 5:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.05%chance

181129

OptionProbability

YES

NO

1527

849

Will there be a more sample-efficient pretraining algorithm than next token prediction for NLP before 2027?

Jun 3, 2:46 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.43%chance

10623

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1141

876

Benchmark Gap #2: Once we have an algorithm with human level sample efficiency for major RL benchmarks, how many years will it be before there is an algorithm with human level sample efficiency on essentially all AAA video game tasks?

Nov 9, 9:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

1.6%chance

7578

OptionProbability

YES

NO

924

375

Will Starship land on Mars to return the MSR samples?

Oct 29, 1:27 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

33.03%chance

7373

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

101

Before which year will a Venus Sample Return Mission be successfully completed?

Apr 19, 2:13 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

5357

OptionProbability

2075

2065

Not before 2075

2055

2045

2035

27

22

22

17

9

4

Will Corning or Murata produced QS separators make their way into a sample cell in 2026?

Dec 21, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

88.38%chance

8322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

276

36

Will "ARC progress update: Competing with sampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Nov 19, 4:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

11.14%chance

2270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1252

964

Will the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?

Mar 13, 3:29 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.27%chance

7162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

294

132

Will isaak freeman take a blood/tissue sample test for microplastics by EOY 2029?

Sep 18, 9:28 PMSep 26, 3:59 AM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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