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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

USA x Iran ceasefire by end of march 31?

Feb 28, 6:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

9.69%chance

21665103

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3053

328

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3%chance

6318157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2698

899

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.85%chance

193766

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3687

271

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?

Jul 3, 7:23 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

12665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

46.33%chance

10606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.28%chance

7315

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

819

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

Will Iran sign a peace deal with the middle east countries

Mar 4, 7:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

4115

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

65

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

380

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

Will the USL receive Division 1 sanctioning from USSF by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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