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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.71%chance

6518420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2961

891

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

14.51%chance

547015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3402

401

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.31%chance

214959

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4224

237

🇺🇸💥🇪🇺 Will there be a war between the United States and an EU country or European Union as a whole by end of 2028?

Apr 6, 11:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.44%chance

71170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

77

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.17%chance

191156

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1128

933

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8.83%chance

20685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

321

31

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

46.33%chance

10606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

Alexander Granko Arteaga is detained in Venezuela

May 27, 10:21 PMJul 1, 5:00 AM

363

OptionProbability

Before Jul 1st 2026

Before Jun 16th 2026

59

0

Will the USL receive Division 1 sanctioning from USSF by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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