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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

Will the Russia 🇷🇺 - 🇺🇦 Ukraine war end before 2026?

Oct 14, 9:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.72%chance

2815300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

449

22

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.01%chance

3213336

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9882

101

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.59%chance

488227

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

943

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?

Jul 3, 7:23 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

12665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Brazil reaches US agreement on Trump tariffs this year?

Oct 27, 6:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.25%chance

11628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

43.03%chance

8546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

International sanctions against US by EOY2025?

Jun 23, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.13%chance

12387

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

49.1%chance

3120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

1035

Will Nicolas Maduro continue to accept migrant deportations of Venezuelans illegally residing in the US before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the USL receive Division 1 sanctioning from USSF by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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