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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

US nukes Iran in 2025?

Jun 20, 3:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.21%chance

298402

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6656

150

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.49%chance

488207

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

942

Will a western country put sanctions on Israel by the end of 2025?

Mar 14, 6:55 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.43%chance

301772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1673

781

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

151050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

41.49%chance

7519

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

842

International sanctions against US by EOY2025?

Jun 23, 4:45 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.84%chance

11385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

195

51

🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?

Jul 3, 7:23 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

16.62%chance

9216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

224

45

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

E3 snap back Iran nuclear deal sanctions by October 18, 2025?

Apr 7, 9:09 PMOct 17, 11:59 PM

84.67%chance

3145

OptionVotes

NO

YES

235

43

Will the United States impose new major economic sanctions on Russia due to the Ukraine conflict before the end of 2025?

Aug 3, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.46%chance

542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will the USL receive Division 1 sanctioning from USSF by 2030?

Mar 21, 2:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Will Nicolas Maduro continue to accept migrant deportations of Venezuelans illegally residing in the US before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50%chance

12

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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