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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.72%chance

6418412

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2953

891

Will the US obtain the Iranian uranium?

Apr 1, 9:15 PMDec 31, 10:14 PM

18.62%chance

516350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3278

1010

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.33%chance

194539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4214

237

Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):

Mar 12, 3:08 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

181345

OptionProbability

Deal with minimal concessions

Unyielding Islamic Regime

Deal with major concessions

Balkanization/long civil war

Military coup (Artesh)

Popular takeover

Venezuela-style puppet state

Voluntary transition of power

43

36

8

6

3

3

1

1

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.73%chance

181092

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1064

940

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

46.33%chance

10606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.32%chance

10544

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1063

784

Trump will announce tariffs on a European country to pay towards the Iran war by end of Jun 2026

Apr 1, 4:36 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

35.23%chance

11416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

74

Will any non-USA country ease Russian oil sanctions or price caps?

Mar 13, 2:58 PMJan 1, 2:49 PM

27.12%chance

7249

OptionVotes

YES

NO

164

61

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.48%chance

7231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

163

62

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

53.68%chance

5220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

982

Will the United States regulate cryptocurrency due to its use in upcoming war before the end of 2027

Mar 22, 8:45 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

5138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

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