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Prediction markets for Sanctions Unit

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.88%chance

6116081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2804

896

US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026

Jan 13, 11:54 PMJun 29, 11:59 PM

62.66%chance

466733

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1296

772

Will Iran enrich uranium to weapons grade in 2026?

Dec 29, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.45%chance

182964

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2927

342

Will South Korea withdraw from the NPT by 2026?

Apr 22, 4:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.75%chance

161070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1062

940

Will Nicolas Maduro continue to accept migrant deportations of Venezuelans illegally residing in the US before 2028?

Dec 18, 10:18 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

4.68%chance

7809

OptionVotes

YES

NO

451

22

🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?

Jul 3, 7:23 AMJan 19, 11:59 PM

20.36%chance

12665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

198

51

Will Russia retaliate to the US's capture of Maduro

Jan 3, 10:23 AMApr 3, 9:20 AM

4.19%chance

10624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

231

91

Will the ICC prosecute a US citizen before 2035?

May 27, 8:36 AMMar 3, 9:59 PM

46.33%chance

10606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1076

929

Will the United States and Iran sign a new official agreement by February 28, 2026?

Feb 2, 7:21 PMFeb 27, 11:59 PM

16.61%chance

14538

OptionVotes

YES

NO

398

123

USA and Russia back to bilateral trading in 2026?

Jan 6, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

7221

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will any US city experiment with AI-managed governance (e.g., zoning decisions or resource allocation) by 2035?

Mar 27, 9:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

77.34%chance

9155

OptionVotes

NO

YES

350

142

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