OptionProbability
Therapies to reverse cardiovascular diseases
Gene Editing Therapies
Personalized medicine based on patient's genetic profile
Autonomous Drone Swarms Dominating Land and Air Combat
Regenerative Medicine
Brain-Computer Interfaces
Heat pumps and solar panels for heating homes
Humanoid Robots in Service/Logistics Roles
Solar panels with 40% efficiency
Bioprinting
Synthetic Meat Indistinguishable from Real Meat
Therapies to reverse neurodegenerative diseases
Fully Autonomous Cargo Ships
Transoceanic fully autonomous container crossing without onboard crew
More than half of all commercial ships built between 2030-2050 have the option to supplement their power burn with wind power (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9R6ln7pr5QU)
Artificial Photosynthesis (10% efficiency in converting sunlight to chemical energy)
viable cloned organs using your own DNA as base (i.e. no autoimmune organ rejection)
Human-level AGI
Solid-state EV batteries ≥ 500 Wh/kg in mass-produced cars
Space-Based Manufacturing
A Specific ‘Longevity Drug’ or Defined Drug Combination that Extends Average Human Healthspan by at Least 10 Years
Desalination with Energy Consumption Below 1.5 kWh/m³
Seafloor Mining Robots
Cancer Vaccine Targeting Multiple Types of Cancer
Quantum Computing Applications
Non-invasive colon cancer screening that is equally or more effective than a Colonoscopy
Graphene semiconductor electronics
Nanorobots for Precision Drug Delivery
Lunar Bases
Moon base
Self-Healing Materials for Infrastructure
Advanced Exoskeletons for Everyday Use
Male pattern baldness treatment that consistently turns Nowood 7 to Norwood 1 (no surgery/grafts)
Major resurgence of lighter than air craft for shipping or consumer travel/leisure
Britain finishes HS2
Photonic computing
Smart Contact Lenses with AR Capabilities
Commercial asteroid mining
Datacenters in space
Artificial Wombs for Human Gestation (from conception to birth)
Hypersonic commercial passenger travel
Sand Batteries (Polar Night Energy) to store energy for months.
Joywire
Nuclear powered cargo ships
Room-Temperature Atmospheric-Pressure Superconductors
Fast travel across the globe
Commercial fusion power
AI that produces AAA-level video games via end-user prompts
Medication that adds 30 lbs+ muscle with no major negative health effects
Mars Base
City-scale fully automated underground logistics networks
Nuclear microreactors that can be used anywhere
Nuclear Thermal Rockets
Point-to-Point Suborbital Spaceflight (Regularly Scheduled Passenger Transport)
Cryonics with Successful Revival
Biohybrid Robots with Living Muscle Tissue
Universal Flu Vaccine (effictive against all current and future strains)
Food with bioengineered saturated fat that doesn't raise cholesterol
Commercial satellite to ground power transmission
Self-Actuating Metamaterials for Adaptive Structures in Buildings and Infrastructure
Changing the height of an adult at will
Von Neumann Probe
Orbital Habitats
Self-Replicating Fully-Automated Factories
Fusion Drives
Engineered Symbiotic Microorganism Implants for Human Physiological Augmentation
Human Mind Uploading
Space-to-Earth power stations
Space probes travelling at >=1% speed of light
Direct Cognitive Collaboration
Autonomous Flying Cars in Cities
Cell replacement therapy using synthetic cells
A skyhook space structure in LEO
Human sex change at chromosome level
Human Missions to Mars with Round-Trip Travel Time Under 6 Months
Changing a person's race at will
Room-Temperature Superconducting Transmission Lines in Urban Power Grids
Vacuum Airships
Time travel to the future
Commercial cold fusion
Space Elevator
Quantum Sensors Enabling Detection of Cancer Years Before Symptoms
Temporal Cloaking Device (Hiding Events in Time)
Antimatter bombs
Reality Anchoring Device (Stabilizing Subjective Reality)
1% Dyson sphere coverage
Faster then Light Propulsion
Time travel to the past
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2
OptionProbability
YES - The AI, without being prompted to, took actions to breach its sandbox, including to gain crypto and an external connection
NO - The authors are wrong/lying and there was no such hack
NO - The servers were hacked by an outside party, perhaps via prompt injection
NO - An employee (or other insider) was crypto-mining and made it look like the LLM
63
27
7
3
OptionProbability
Stretch-and-fold after mixing, 3x every 30 min
3 iterations of stretch-and-fold, at any time during the 14h waiting period. Minimum wait time between iterations 1 hour
Place small ice cubes between parchment and pot instead of water
Add 1tsp of diastatic malt powder per 3cps of flour
Use tap water instead of fancy RO water
put butter into it
Toast the bread
Put a non-lethal dose of any rat poison.
Donate the bread to a food pantry, homeless person, or someone else in need
Add lots of butter (0.2 ml per gram)
Half yeast
Bake it with your best friend.
Use whole wheat to improve the nutrition of the bread
Bake for 5 more minutes
Bake for an amount of minutes equal to the percent this market answer is at when it comes time to begin baking. (Maintain the ±3 minute tolerances and the 2:1 ratio of time before:after the water spritz.)
Sprinkle 3 grams of flaky sea salt on top of each loaf before the second bake
Increase water by 50 g
it needs more salt
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of extra virgin olive oil.
Diastatic malt (~1% baker's percentage) = happier yeast
Serve the bread hot
Use Iodized salt
Do a second rise
Create indentation, fill with melted cheese and butter
Do all the changes in the top 5 open options by probability, excluding this option
Sprinkle sesame seeds evenly over the top
don't eat anything for at least 2400 hours before eating the bread
Use sourdough instead of yeast
Cut into the dough right before baking looks destructive to improve the appearance
Sell your bread at an auction and donate the money to those in immigration detention prisons.
Add garlic
Do it with a good spirit in your heart, or ask someone with a good spirit to do it for you. But don’t watch while they do it.
Give ChatGPT your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
Just freeze the ready bread, then slowly bake it until it’s hot inside. It will give you a crustier crumb, contain less moisture, and taste better.
Substitute 75 g of your flour with spelt flour
add 'gunpowder' (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Idli_podi)
Don't eat anything for at least 48 hours before eating the bread
Short advice: Start baking at 260°C for strong rise, then reduce to 230°C and uncover halfway to achieve even browning and a crisp crust. 🍞
Use the same dough bake it as focaccia. Flat with EVOO added during shaped rise and baste with EVOO instead of spraying water during baking.
put ketchup and cheese on it
Add slurs to it
Don't automatically "Heat water to 30±1 °C". Instead, aim for a desired dough temperature (DDT) of 25-26°C. 30°C water is too hot for summer, and potentially too cool for winter.
Ask ChatGPT (GPT-5, with thinking enabled) for suggestions on improving the bread, with this market description, then do all of them.
Get recipe from gemini with experiments done, taste preference, then confirm it with chatgpt for final suggestion.
Try baking a little more "bien cuit". If the image is indicative, your loaves may be quite "blonde".
Make all of the ingredients from scratch.
Make the bread taste good
Put a baking rack in the Dutch oven before putting the loaf in, raising the loaf off the floor and lofting it over a layer of air.
Butter resolved yes twice. Double butter again.
Add an amount of non-smoked paprika equal to the current salt content
Buy bread from a michelin star restaurant.
Mix only flour and water. Wait 30–60 minutes. Then mix in yeast and salt.
If your city uses artesian water, replace plastic bottled water with tap water. It will add natural, healthy alkalinity to your bread.
throw your recipe into a black box Bayesian hyperparameter optimization framework and iterate as necessary (see the Google Vizier Cookie Recipe paper for example
Make banana bread
Strawberry jelly filling
Replace part of the flour in the dough with freshly crushed hemp seeds. It will make the bread a little bit sweeter, especially appealing for Canadians.
Invest in a "Bakers Steel" for better heat retention and oven spring. It would mean graduating from a dutch oven though.
Watch the video
Ditch current process, do everything the same as the video
Bread flour, 3x yeast, cut rise to ~3h
Use lemonade instead of water.
Eat the bread while punching @realDonaldTrump in the face
Eat the bread while watching your mana balance steadily tick to (M)0
Throw the bread at a telescope
Cut bread into loaves before serving
Cut bread into ≤0.4inch slices, toast before serving
Invite your taste-testers to make the bread with you
Tarriff the bread-making process with a 10% reduction of all ingredients where actual physical money is required to purchase them, until it “shrinkflates,” but try to keep the same volume. Do not reduce any free ingredients.
Standardize a separate list of process features to keep track of independently of all other tests and use the cross entropy method to tune them to maximize your bread preference
Taste the bread
put oats on top of the dough just before baking, press them in so they don't fall off
Buy chemical bread improvers
Complete 5 items from your to-do list while the bread is rising
Replace all water spritz steps with a basting of gravy that includes chicken stock
Add cheese inside it and also sausage
Add 6.25±1.25 g lemon juice when mixing in water to yeast and salt jug
Add melatonin to the bread and eat before you sleep (do safely)
Don't eat anything for at least 24 hours before eating the bread
While the bread is baking, tip every user who voted "Yes" on this option 25 Mana
Use a food-grade, human-approved vitamin D supplement in the correct dosage for testers with vitamin D deficiency
Have someone sell the bread to you at an expensive price
Use a convection oven/setting
Bake the bread into a fun shape, like a fish, or an octagon
Add 1/2 scoop whey protein powder
Eat it slowly and focus on the taste
Give Gemini your current recipe as well your take on what optimal bread tastes like, then take that advice for your next bake
replace 10% of flour with farina bona
Keep the bread in a high quality expensive beeswax coated textile bag
Make the bread great again
Decompose it into infinite spheres, then a few parts per sphere, rotate the spheres by arccos(1/3), unite them and you will find 2 chilis (Banach-Tarski)
Bake the Manifold Crane into the Bread
Make the bread edible then throw it in
Drink vodka while eating the bread
Do FOLDED
Quit Manifold into the bread.
Kill the bread into Manifold.
Assume the chili is not in the interval [0,1], square it for more chili, if it is in (0,1), take the square root, else (equals 0 or 1) add 1 to it.
Assume the chili is in the interval (0,1), square it for less chili, if it is in (1,infinity) take the square root, if it is in (-infinity,0) take the negative of the square of the of the chile, else (equals 0 or 1) subtract 1 from it.
Bake for 15 more minutes
Add 2 tbsp vanilla cake mix
Replace AP with bread flour and cruelly mix the dough in the mixer until elastic and not sticky
Add a tablespoon of sugar
Bake one more minute
Replace 10% of flour with milled wheat bran
Follow a recipe online
Grind/powderize all salt used into a fine powder (with pestle & mortar or similar device)
Instead of RO water, use lightly rusty water to improve the nutritional value of the bread with soluble iron.
Add at least 20% chic pea flour or some other type of high protein flour
Only buy ingredients from 7/11.
Knead it only 10 times, keep it round like this number
Ask yourself if bread is healthier than fruits? No need to improve my bread
Resolve at least one thing here yes or no while baking bread
A system view is more appropriate. This is a dynamic, multi-variate, biological and chemical system. For e.g. conditioning salt % AND yeast % AND water temperature based on ingredient and ambient temps.
Use soda instead of water (clear, orange, yellow, etc. soda is ok. Don’t use a purple/brown soda as that would make it not look good)
Wear a suit while baking the cake.
Encourage people to participate in the market in good faith while making the bread
Replace salt with sugar
Cook the bread with a rod/puck of aluminum foil (or similar) in the core in an attempt to conduct heat through the center of the bread, cooking it evenly like a doughnut.
Get your friends to help you make a batch ten times the size, but add a Pepper X (2.7M Scoville heat units) to the mixture
Slowly add sawdust to the bread until your friends start to notice.
Mail the bread to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Washington D.C.
Replace 600+/-5g water with 600+/-50g water (eyeball rather than carefully measure)
Pray to your preferred agricultural/food deity before baking and before eating
Soak the finished product in vinegar for 24 hours
Ship a piece of the bread to a random person.
Frost it and put sprinkles on it to make it a birthday cake.
Add caffeine to the bread
Add as many Jack Daniel's whiskey barrel smoking chips as feasible to the Dutch oven before baking, physically separating them from the bread as necessary while baking.
Give the bread a name in a ritual ceremony and baptise it, with pre-blessed holy water if a priest isn't available
Improve the bread
Quadruple salt
Bake your social security number into it.
Bake one fewer minute
Bake the cake while wearing a onesie.
Test/filter the water for heavy metals
Eat the bread in front of the White House.
Implement all options that resolved NO
Make the bread inedible then throw it out.
Throw the bread at @realDonaldTrump
Force Feed it to @realDonaldTrump
Cut the bread into the number of traders in the market slices.
make the bread bounce
Implementing every element listed below.
Just make donuts instead
Bake it in an easy bake kids oven
Use a plastic baking sheet.
Eat the bread while betting yes on Cuomo on Manifold
Double oven temperature
Bake the bread very thin and add food coloring to make it have the US flag. Don’t allow it to touch the ground, illuminate at night, fold 13 times properly, and pledge allegiance before eating.
Don’t use usual water (room temperature) for the dough - that water’s only for toilets. Use electrolyte drinks instead with ice cubes; they make the dough taste better and add extra nutrition.
Light it on fire with birthday candles.
Bake it with a microwave
Halve oven temperature
Eat the bread while betting yes on Mamdani on Manifold
Step on it
Bring it to Yemen and put a bomb in it
Bake America Great Again
Sacrifice a lamb
Add MAGA and a splash of Trump juice
Bake in a cat and a dog
Explode it:
5 parts cyanide/ 1 part water/ 1 part sand
say 6 7 67 times before making the bread
Take a fat dump in the dough
Sit in dough 24 hrs
Replace flour with flowers
Let dough sit 24 hrs
Mix half sodium/potassium chloride
Add 2g? of baking soda
Bake in rectangular tin
Add 50g vital wheat gluten
double yeast
halve salt
Double salt
Add 2tsp olive oil
Refrigerate dough instead of room temp wait
Start at 500F, drop to 450F and uncover half way through
Do not mix salt and yeast in water together
Autolyse 20 minutes
Let dough rise on counter only until double volume or 2h max, any time longer in fridge
Think positive thoughts before tasting
Put fork in microwave
Don't eat anything for at least 12 hours before eating the bread
Add 2tbsp vanilla extract
Play classical music while baking
Make naan bread, an easy-to-make bread
Add a pinch of sugar
Bake on upside-down sheet pan, covered with Dutch oven
Eat the bread with friends
Bake vegimite into it.
Bake vodka into it
Bake it in the country you were born in.
Let dough sit 48 hrs
Resolve this option YES while eating the bread
Ditch all the steps. Just buy the bread from the supermarket
Eat the bread over the course of a week.
Bake for 5 fewer minutes
Use 50% whole grain flour
Bake the bread with love
Use King Arthur Bread Flour instead of All-Purpose
Add sawdust to increase the volume of the bread (but only like 10% sawdust by volume max. maybe 20% if it's good sawdust)
More steam! Either spritz with more water (preferably hot) or actually pour some boiling water in just before closing the lid.
Resolve this option NO while eating the bread
Incorporate a whole grain flour (buckwheat for example)
Add 50g sugar
Add 50g honey
Swap 200ml water for milk
Cover bread with damp paper towel instead of initial water spritz. Rehydrate paper towel during 2nd spritz. Remove paper towel before placing on cooling rack.
Make a poolish 12 h ahead: 100 g flour + 100 g water + 0.8 g yeast (0.1 %). After it ferments, use this poolish in place of 100 g flour and 100 g water in the final dough.
Add an amount of MSG equivalent to half the current salt content
Use flour made from an unconventional grain e.g. barley, millet, oats, rye, sorghum, maize etc.
Eat the bread while sending all your mana to @realDonaldTrump
Add 1/2 cup yogurt to the bread and name the bread “gurt” while addressing it with “yo, gurt”.
Add banana
Add poppy seeds
Replace some of the water with an egg (eg. remove 25g of water for a 50g egg)
Only use tap water from specifically New York City
Want to improve the value of your bread? Simply bake a piece of gold into it
Brush on an egg wash
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OptionProbability
Title of the movie is "Dune: Part Three"
Announced in 2024
Music composed by Hans Zimmer
One or more characters who died in the first two films are cloned/appear in the film as clones (or gholas)
Paul Atreides sits on a throne
Rated PG-13
Denis Villeneuve credited as Producer, Director, and Writer
IMDB rating over 8.1 one week after release
Guild Navigator shown (not fully obscured by suit or tank)
Released in 2026
Thinking machines directly referenced ("artificial intelligence", "machine in the likeness of a human mind", etc. counts as yes)
3 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously
Mentat does an eye-flick calculation
At least one birth depicted on screen
Runtime over 2h 45m
At least three characters who died in the first two movies are depicted on-screen (can be flashback, spice dream, etc)
5 or more sand worms are on screen simultaneously
A named character will be cast as a different gender to their book gender (other than ones who appeared in previous movies eg Liet Kynes)
Runtime between 2h 30m and 2h 45m inclusive
Alia depicted on-screen as a toddler (not infant and obviously <6yo)
Hitler mentioned by name
Runtime under 2h 30m
The word "jihad" (not "holy war" or similar) is used
"Butlerian jihad" mentioned by name
”Messiah” is in the movie title
An actor for a named character is replaced by a different actor
Not released by EoY 2030
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100
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87
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84
80
74
65
57
53
33
31
23
14
12
8
8
6
5
4
OptionVotes
YES
NO
5736
30
OptionProbability
Aella
Eliezer Yudkowsky
CJ the X
Rob Miles
Andrea Botez
Ordinarythings
Solar Sands
Scott Alexander
Tristan Harris
Tim Urban
idubbbz
Dax Flame
Micheal Reeves
Any #Vsauce
CGP Grey
XKCD
Yung Gravy
Lex Fridman
Destiny
Mr Beast
Bbyno$
Jordan Peterson
Elon Musk
PewDiePie
Sam Altman
Joe Rogan
Donald Trump
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81
50
45
20
20
10
8
8
8
8
6
6
6
6
6
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
3
OptionProbability
Other
Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
Pete Buttigieg
Gretchen Whitmer
Andy Beshear
Josh Shapiro
Raphael Warnock
Gavin Newsom
JB Pritzker
Abigail Spanberger
Wes Moore
Kamala Harris
Tim Walz
Cory Booker
Ro Khanna
Hakeem Jeffries
Mark Cuban
Jamie Dimon
Chris Van Hollen
Rob sand
Jacob Frey
36
13
12
6
6
5
4
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Rob Sand
Zach Lahn
Other
Eddie Andrews
Randy Feenstra
Brad Sherman
Adam Steen
Paul Dahl
Julie Stauch
61
35
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Pile of sand removed
AGI
78
22
OptionProbability
Bellonara Otherys
Other
Just a simple septa
Ashara Dayne
Tyene Sand's mother
Malora Hightower
Wenda the White Fawn
Serra Mopatis
Lady Mellario of Norvos
Elia Martell
Lady Piper (wife of Quellon Greyjoy)
Lyanna Stark
15
14
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
2
1
1
OptionProbability
San Dieguito Bridge to I-5 (tunnel)
under Crest Canyon (tunnel)
under Camino Del Mar (tunnel)
double-track & reinforce existing route on Del Mar Bluffs (no tunnel)
don't do anything ("no build")
20
20
20
20
20
