OptionProbability
The Jews control at least one nation's government
The P320 pistol has a design flaw allowing it to fire without pulling the trigger
Imane Khelif is intersex
Orgies by the fucked-up poors as portrayed in "Eyes Wide Shut XXX" (2013)
Dream faked the Manhunt videos
Santa is rigged
Orgies by the wealthy elite as portrayed in 'Eyes Wide Shut'.
DHMO in the water supply
The UK security services are complicit in the coverup of a significant underage sex scandal closely linked to the monarchy, taking place in the UK in the period 1975-2015
Osama bin Laden didn't act alone
That motherfucker WAS real (Tiffany Gomas was wrong the whole time)
√-1 isn't real
Smartphones listen in on private conversations
The 1% promoted culture wars to distract from class war
US security services use the Google Play Store as an attack vector for android devices
Some answers in this market are psyops to discredit all the others
Trump committed sex offenses against minors on Epstein Island
The CCP is directly supporting drug cartel activity in the West
Joe/Hunter Biden took bribe to protect Burisma from investigation
Lionel Messi never played for a Real football (soccer) team
The CCP has a plan to exterminate a large number of people they consider to not be ethnically Chinese
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that the Self-Indication Assumption is true.
At least 3 of the members elected to the French lower house of Parliament in 2024 are Russian agents
Groundhog Day is rigged
Ticketmaster is in cahoots with organized scalpers
That stock trading AI supposedly built by @SteveSokolowski is actually part of an elaborate scam
The US, UK and French security services have collectively assassinated at least 10 German citizens in Germany since 2022
Some answers in this market are bought NO because they are true
Dead Internet theory
Atrazine works as an endocrine-disrupting chemical (EDC), converting testosterone to estrogen in the bodies of frogs leading to homosexual proclivities.
There are devices which have been used to alter the electric network frequency of a country in the Middle East to leave more identifiable traces in recorded video and audio clips
Jeffrey Epstein didn't kill himself
Smart devices are almost always listening to your private conversations
Gamergate was right
Tiffany Gomas is not the same person as the TMINR lady in the video. She is a PSYOP for Barstool.
US security services asked Microsoft to buy Skype and alter the software so they could target users more easily
Annie Altman's abuse claims
The Romance languages are not descended from Classical Latin
John McAfee didn't kill himself
Germany has a well-prepared plan (in 2024-) to start mass producing nuclear weapons in <6 months (in case things go bad geopolitically)
The Church and elites deliberately suppressed and distorted the more Gnostic message of Jesus Christ.
South Korea has had nuclear weapons since 2023
An adversary is intentionally causing hysteria over drone incidents to force the US/UK's hand into revealing their anti-drone tech
The NBA rigs the draft lottery
The Clintons assasinated their rivals
The Obamas have a loveless marriage, kept together for optics only
Youssoufa Moukoko (soccer player) was born earlier than he claims (earlier than 2004)
FDR deliberately left Pearl Harbor vulnerable, in order to goad Americans into war
China made covid 19 in a lab
Bitcoin was created by a US three letter agency
This one makes me feel evil, so I ROT13'd it, use ROT13 to decode if you want to keep me company in Hell: Ybh Truevt'f ergverzrag jnf npghnyyl na ZYO-znaqngrq fhfcrafvba
Eliezer wrote The Erogamer
The US/UK/French security services are sinking Russian ships in response to attacks on undersea cables and other hybrid warfare activities (since 2022)
Deepwater Horizon explosion due to sabotage
Major deaths, terror, and tragedy events are routinely hoaxes per Miles Mathis.
Rory Stewart worked for MI6
At least one UN recognised country is secretly controlled by a cabal following a religion shared by <5% of the country's population
My dog went to live on farm that was full of other dogs that he could run with and play with and he was much happier than staying with us and peeing on the rug.
Eating your veggies is bad for your health
Bielefeld does not exist, but another city with the same name in the same place does
The article "Deliberate Errors" documenting winks connecting Apollo and Kubrick films is correct, because Kubrick played a role in filming some of the Apollo missions.
Airplane trails have toxic chemicals (chemtrails)
The hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of the American continent
As of June 2025, JD Vance is secretly making plans to use future ASI to sieze power and become eternal world dictator
Lee Harvey Oswald didn't act alone.
@strutheo is @notrickspringfield
Covid was a deliberate test of pandemic preparedness in view of bacteriological war between China and the US
Epstein was alive as of Jan 2026, but dead in the meantime since his "suicide"
Charles Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
Michael Jordan's first NBA retirement was actually a forced suspension.
The U.S. military is the number one customer of Glitterex (a glitter company) but doesn't want anyone to know because it hurts their masculine image.
Hellenistic science developed statistical mechanics to the point of being able to derive PV=nRT
The New Zealand government had advance knowledge of the sinking of the Rainbow Warrior
lɐǝɹ ʇ,usᴉ ɐᴉlɐɹʇsn∀
The American govt is actually a totalitarian dictatorship
Members of US government had prior knowledge of 9/11 and let it happen
Aluminum cookware actually *does* cause Alzheimers.
A pharma company has a much better treatment for cancer that they are keeping secret because it would compete with their existing products
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct refraction law by minimizing light travel time
Marilyn Manson had a rib removed in the late 1990s
China was not genociding Uyghurs
Jeffrey Epstein is still alive
The 1% promoted class war to distract from culture wars
The CIA killed JFK
Non-human intelligence affecting events on Earth is not extraterrestrial "aliens," and humans are incorrect in believing that reality consists only of the Universe.
The Hellenistic civilization was aware of the existence of Azeroth
Sue Gray was a spy
Dominic Cummings was/is a Russian spy
We live in an ancestor simulation per Nick Bostrom.
COVID-19 vaccine is net negative for health
A cure for cancer has already been found
covid-19 vaccine is net negative for health for people who are under 35, with no aggravating condition, and not obese
The 9/11 terror attack date is meaningfully connected to Ernest Martin's theory that Jesus was born on September 11, 3 BC rather than a coincidence.
Ogopogo and the Yeti faked their relationship (to boost CFL ratings, to increase Taylor Swift's movie sales, support Trudeau's reelection, b/c Ogopogo is PSY, etc.)
The Hawk Tuah meme is a North Korean psyop
Finno-Korean Hyperwar was real
Covid 19 was made in a labradoodle
"Geoterrorism" (weather modification for terrorism) is real as of 2024
Princess Diana was assassinated
The NFL is rigged
Hellenistic science advanced meta-thermodynamics to derive 𝑄 = 𝑛𝐶Δ𝑇(1 + 𝐻⊙⋆) using the Holtzman Generator
Harold Holt murdered
ASI will converge on agreeing (90%+ credence) that Trump/Musk model the first/second beast of Revelation.
Trump and Netanyahu had Charlie Kirk killed to take control of TPUSA
Bush did 9/11
Jet fuel *can* melt steel beams, but the official 9/11 narrative is sus because chemtrail chemicals cannot
Many vaccines on the standard CDC childhood immunization schedule have serious negative side effects (net negative on health) for at least 5% of the population.
Bitcoin was created by a 3 letter Hellenistic agency
Biden and/or US govt did Jan 6 (exclude trump)
Shakespeare didn’t write his own plays
The NBA rigged Shaq's free throws
You personally live in Truman Show style captivity
Tom Brady's retirement was actually an NFL mandated suspension
Israel killed JFK
The pharma industry has a better version of Viagra that they keep secret to keep their profits up
Hellenistic scientists could derive the correct warp-induced refraction law by exceeding Warp Factor 9 under Cochrane’s Theorem
Circa 1920 civilizational collapse (c.f. "Whither Tartaria?")
The 2020 US presidential election was rigged/stolen
Ogopogo is real
QAnon
Exercise is bad for your health
A support network of close friendships is bad for your health
Skin cancer is caused by a lack of melanin, regardless of sunlight exposure
Elon Musk used Starlink to rig the 2024 election
Shakespeare is not real - they claim he was married to Anne Hathaway but she's like only 40 or so
carbon dioxide isn't the main cause of global warming
Allen Iverson invented A.I.
The government iodizes the water and fluoridates salt when it should be the other way around
The Mandella Effect in general is real
Chinese people really *are* just saying the n-word.
Hellenistic science knew of quantum mechanics
Mossad releases video and audio clips, intended to be of interest to their adversaries, which play special sounds that humans don't notice
Epstein was still alive as of Jan 2026
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce faked their relationship (to boost NFL ratings, to increase Tay's movie sales, legitimize mRNA vaccines, b/c she is a PSYOP, etc.)
Effective Altruism is a scam and they just embezzle all the donations
QR codes are satanic
The Hellenistic civilization invented USB
Mossad uses Hellenistic technology borrowed from the North Sentinelese
Xi Jinping had advance knowledge of the Hawk Tuah meme
Trump devolved the government in anticipation of 2020 election fraud and replaced Biden with an actor wearing a mask.
China purposely spread covid 19 having intended it to escape the lab
Human didnt evolve from apes
Getting 8 hours of sleep is bad for your health
Rationalussy isn't real.
Hitler killed himself because the alternative was going to Argentina
Jerry Sandusky is innocent.
Skin cancer is caused by sunblock, not sunlight
Lee Harvey Oswald was an agent of the Hellenistic Civilization
Famous Israeli agent Eisseberg was behind the sinking of the Titanic
xkcd 690: on 9/11, one of the towers was hit by a plane and the other was a controlled demolition
@HenriThunberg was paid to create the James Bond market to promote the upcoming movie
Marilyn Monroe had a rib removed in the late 1990s
US government is harboring aliens
Tupac is still alive in 2024
Bielefeld does not exist
Walt Disney was cryogenically frozen, and they made the movie Frozen so that when people googled 'Walt Disney Frozen' the movie would come up first
The Hellenistic Civilization made COVID-19 in a lab
South Sudan has had nukes since 2023
The North Sentinelese have a secret aircraft carrier
The North Sentinelese have a non-secret aircraft carrier, they have announced it to the world loud and clear. Problem is: nobody speaks their language.
The illuminati runs the world
Monica Lewinsky was a Mossad agent
Birds aren't real
climate change isn't human caused
Tiger Woods is a militant separatist Tamil
Hurricane Katrina caused by HAARP
Climate change isn’t real
The moon landing was fake
The CIA killed Tupac, and JFK is still alive as of 2024
The Romance languages are not descended from Latin
The North Sentinelese are remnants of the Hellenistic civilization
The 9/11 terror attack was a justified false flag to secure a weapon of mass destruction (destabalizing religious text and/or supertechnology) at the tomb of Gilgamesh.
Hitler didn't kill himself he went to Argentina
*All* health care is net negative for health
Q is Putin
Michelle Obama is a man
Brazilian money is not real
Yeti is real or similar creature
The earth is a dodecahedron
Skibidi Toilet is real
Earth is hollow
It used to be spelled Berenstein Bears
Nuclear weapons have never existed
Africa isn't real
Flossing is bad for your health
HIV doesn’t cause AIDS
Christiano Ronaldo never played for a Real football (soccer) team
There is no female orgasm
The North Sentinelese are concealing super-advanced technology.
The earth is flat
*All* vaccines are net negative for health
End of the world in 2012
Justin Trudeau is actually Black and has been wearing "whiteface" all along.
Finland isn't real
Australia isn't real.
5G will kill all vaccinated people once the towers are switched on
Brushing your teeth is bad for your health
Taylor Swift and Mary Berg are the same person
The Epcot sphere was built by aliens as some sort of energy device powering the rat empire.
Nauru has had a working fusion reactor since 2001
91
90
88
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86
82
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80
80
76
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71
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60
56
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52
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OptionProbability
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk posts two or more tweets that are unambiguously critical of Trump by Election Day, 2028 (Nate: 70%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump establishes a Bitcoin reserve in his first 100 days (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 40% on China before the 2028 elections (Nate: 30%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 25% on Mexico or Canada before the 2028 elections (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] The SALT deduction is raised or uncapped before the 2026 midterms (Nate: 80%)
[Economy] Trump signs legislation or passes an executive order reducing or eliminating taxes on tips by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 65%)
[Economy] There is at least one federal government shutdown before the 2028 elections (Nate: 75%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits China (Nate: 90%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump makes any new statement that COVID probably or definitely originated in a Chinese lab by 1/20/29 (Nate: 75%)
[Constitutionality] By 1/20/29, the NYT publishes the phrase “constitutional crisis” in reference to actions undertaken by Trump, the White House, or Republicans in the headline or lede paragraph of at least three news articles (Nate: 45%)
[Media] Trump or the federal government sue the New York Times or the Washington Post, or any active employees thereof, at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 55%)
[Media] The New York Times or Washington Post hires at least one full-time explicitly pro-Trump political columnist by the 2028 election (Nate: 40%)
[Media] Trump attends the White House Correspondents’ Association Dinner at least once (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on his still being president, the New York Times publishes at least three articles between the 2026 midterms and 2028 election pointing toward Trump’s physical or cognitive decline (Nate: 80%)
[Constitutionality] The Supreme Court substantially overrules Trump’s interpretation of birthright citizenship (Nate: 90%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the House in the 2026 midterms (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] The federal government sues any AAU university for failing to comply with Students for Fair Admissions v. Harvard by 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons any family member, not including himself, before 1/20/29 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] At least 1 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 90%)
[Immigration] Southwestern border apprehensions are at least 50% lower in 2025-2027 than on average from 2021-2023 (Nate: 75%)
[Media] MSNBC ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2018 (Nate: 80%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump completes his term (Nate: 75%)
[Baseline Politics] Mike Johnson remains Speaker of the House through 11/3/2026 (Nate: 60%)
[Constitutionality] Trump pardons himself before 1/20/29 (Nate: 85%)
[Trump Cabinet] Two or more Cabinet members from any point in Trump’s second term publicly criticize Trump by the 2028 election (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] Total federal government tax receipts, including tariffs, are lower as a share of GDP in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] The US Gini coefficient is higher in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 85%)
[Culture Wars] Homicide rates are lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 70%)
[Media] Fox News ratings are lower in 2026 than in 2022 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The gender gap, measured as the Republican vote share among men less the share among women, will be wider in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 65%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump is impeached (again) — does not require conviction (Nate: 45%)
[Baseline Politics] At least one new Supreme Court vacancy in the 119th or 120th Congress (Nate: 85%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or his successors sign any law limiting the scope of Section 230 of the Communications Decency Act by 11/7/2028, reducing liability protections for social media companies (Nate: 60%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump asserts his intention on at least two occasions to run for a third term in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Constitutionality] Trump or his successors invoke the Insurrection Act at any point before 1/20/29, even if later blocked by courts (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Year-over-year inflation is >=5.0% at any point based on data published before the 2028 election (Nate: 50%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the presidency in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The New York Times or Washington Post report that the Trump administration has illegally surveilled domestic political opponents by the 2028 election (a.k.a. Watergate 2.0) (Nate: 25%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in Santa Clara County, California in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 60%)
[Culture Wars] A ban on transgender student-athletes in women’s sports is passed through Congress and signed by Trump or enacted through executive action by 1/20/29 (Nate: 70%)
[Economy] The NBER declares a recession at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 45%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses the eventual winner of the 2028 GOP presidential nomination by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least two of Pete Hegseth, Tulsi Gabbard, and RFK Jr. do not occupy their respective cabinet positions (or are not confirmed) by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 65%)
[Culture Wars] Childhood measles vaccination rates (currently ~93%) drop below 90% in any calendar year based on best available data as of 1/20/2029 (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] Trump or any successors sign legislation with the explicit aim of increasing US fertility rates by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] The S&P 500 closes at least 40% higher on 9/1/2028 than on 1/17/2025 (5,996.66 points) (Nate: 50%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump visits Russia (Nate: 60%)
[Media] The Washington Post endorses the Democratic presidential candidate in 2028 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win the Senate in 2026 (Nate: 15%)
[Silicon Valley] The FTC or another federal agency initiate a new prosecution against a Big 5 tech company by 1/20/29 (Nate: 60%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats win a trifecta (House + Senate + POTUS) in 2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Trump and 2028] JD Vance is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Jewish vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 50%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 55%)
[Culture Wars] At least half the members of any Super Bowl champion refuse to visit the White House while Trump is in office or refuses to invite them (Nate: 10%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Black vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Constitutionality] The White House refuses to comply with any Supreme Court order (Nate: 10%)
[Constitutionality] Republicans hold Congressional hearings on efforts to cover up Biden’s age or physical or cognitive condition (Nate: 45%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill or executive order restricting early or mail-in voting or voter registration practices for federal elections (Nate: 25%)
[Silicon Valley] Trump or the White House make a public statement warning of the dangers of unaligned AI by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Trump imposes a tariff of at least 20% on Denmark before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive action, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on licensed online American sportsbooks by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 50%)
[Culture Wars] At least one Oscar, Grammy, or Emmy winner explicitly praises Trump during their acceptance speech before the 2028 elections (Nate: 40%)
[Economy] Real GDP growth through Q3 2028 exceeds the average of GDP growth (3.3%) during Biden’s first 15 quarters (Nate: 35%)
[Trump Cabinet] At least three Attorneys General, excluding acting AGs, occupy the position before 1/20/2029 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Conditional on still being president, Trump endorses JD Vance by 2/29/2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the LGBTQ vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 55%)
[Silicon Valley] Elon Musk donates at least $100M to the Republican general election nominee in 2028 (Nate: 55%)
[Media] Trump bars all New York Times or Washington Post reporters from White House press briefings at any point before the 2028 election (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump's first nominee for Federal Reserve Chair in 2026 is confirmed with at least two-thirds of voting Senators (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] Congress declares war or authorizes the use of military force by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 25%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=40% by the 2028 general election (Nate: 60%)
[Immigration] At least 3 million illegal/unauthorized immigrants are deported through 2027 (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] At least 30% of donations from Big 5 tech employees (Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft) go toward Republicans in the 2028 campaign (Nate: 25%)
[Economy] The top federal tax bracket is lower in 2028 than in 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Conditional on the war not ending, the US cuts foreign aid to Ukraine by at least 25% in its next budget (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump recognizes Taiwan by 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Foreign Policy] There is a territorial dispute, resulting in maneuvering of military assets, between the US and any country in the Americas (including Greenland) before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 2028 election is not regarded as “free or fair” (or similar terminology) by one or more major international organizations (Nate: 10%)
[Economy] Federal spending as a share of GDP is lower in 2027 than in 2023 (Nate: 60%)
[Economy] Trump invokes the Taft-Hartley Act at least once before the 2028 elections (Nate: 25%)
[Culture Wars] Race relations are rated as “somewhat bad” or “very bad” by more people than in 2021 (57%) in the average of any Gallup surveys taken during Trump’s second term (Nate: 20%)
[Constitutionality] The Trump administration prosecutes Joe Biden (Nate: 50%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Hispanic vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024, as measured based on an average of the AP and Edison exit polls (Nate: 35%)
[Silicon Valley] Congress passes a shift to year-round Standard Time (Nate: 15%)
[Electorate Demographics] The GOP candidate increases their share of the Muslim vote in 2028 vs. Trump in 2024 (Nate: 40%)
[Silicon Valley] Any “Twitter-type” platform has more active daily users than Twitter/X by 6/30/28 (Nate: 30%)
[Electorate Demographics] The Republican margin of victory or defeat improves in New Jersey in 2028 versus 2024 (Nate: 25%)
[Foreign Policy] Trump or his successors successfully withdraw the US from NATO by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 10%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States purchases or retakes any part of Greenland before 1/20/29 (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] The transition to the new president in 2028/2029 is marked by violence, resulting in at least five deaths (Nate: 15%)
[Economy] Trump attempts to fire Jerome Powell before his term expires in May 2026 (Nate: 5%)
[Constitutionality] The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Democracy Index for the US (currently 7.8) falls under 7.0 at any point before 1/20/29 (Nate: 15%)
[Immigration] More H1-B visas are issued on average in FY 2025-2028 versus 2021-2024 (Nate: 35%)
[Culture Wars] The Oscars rescind their DEI requirements by 2028 (Nate: 45%)
[Foreign Policy] An American flag is planted on Mars (including by unmanned drones/robots) by 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump physically refuses to leave the White House following the end of his term or removal from office (Nate: 5%)
[Immigration] The border wall/fence with Mexico is completed before 1/20/29 (Nate: 20%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a bill to repeal substantial portions of Obamacare by 11/3/2026 (Nate: 30%)
[Culture Wars] The White House undertakes any executive order, or Congress passes any law, placing new restrictions on online pornography by 1/20/2029 (Nate: 20%)
[Trump and 2028] The 25th Amendment is invoked against Trump (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] A member of the Trump family (not including Trump himself) is the GOP nominee in 2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Baseline Politics] A third party is a significant factor (>=15% or more of the popular vote at any point after Labor Day) in the 2028 race (Nate: 20%)
[Media] Trump appears on Saturday Night Live at least once before the 2028 election (Nate: 30%)
[Baseline Politics] Democrats take control of the House before the 2026 midterms through special elections or party switches (Nate: 10%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump’s approval rating is >=50% by the 2026 midterms (Nate: 15%)
[Foreign Policy] The United States retakes any part of the Panama Canal before 1/20/29 (Nate: 5%)
[Silicon Valley] DOGE recommendations lead to cuts of at least $500 billion in government spending in any fiscal year between now and the 2028 election (Nate: 10%)
[Culture Wars] Same-sex marriage is not legal in any state as of 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump and 2028] Trump appears on the general election ballot of enough states to win the Electoral College in 2028 (Nate: 2%)
[Culture Wars] Trump signs a federal abortion ban into law by 11/7/2028 (Nate: 5%)
[Trump Cabinet] Either Tulsi Gabbard or RFK Jr. are not confirmed to their current cabinet nominations (Nate: 55%)
[Foreign Policy] The war in Ukraine ends in Trump’s first 90 days (Nate: 25%)
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
92
90
89
88
87
85
85
80
79
79
78
78
76
76
76
72
71
70
68
66
64
62
61
61
60
57
56
52
51
51
47
46
45
45
44
44
41
41
40
39
39
37
37
37
37
36
36
36
36
34
33
32
32
32
32
30
30
29
29
28
28
28
28
28
27
27
27
27
26
25
25
23
23
19
19
19
18
17
17
17
16
15
14
14
14
14
13
13
11
10
8
8
7
5
5
3
3
0
0
OptionProbability
Palmeiras
Flamengo
Cruzeiro
Fluminense
Rosario Central
Independiente Rivadavia
Estudiantes de La Plata
Platense
Universidad Católica
LDU Quito
Corinthians
Coquimbo Unido
Deportes Tolima
Mirassol
Cerro Porteño
Independiente Medellín
Libertad
Always Ready
Nacional
Independiente Santa Fe
Peñarol
Universidad Central
Junior
Lanús
Boca Juniors
Bolívar
Independiente del Valle
Universitario
Cusco FC
Deportivo La Guaira
Sporting Cristal
Barcelona SC
26
17
10
8
6
5
5
4
4
4
4
3
3
2
2
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Scott Sakakihara
Linda Price
Other
Aisha Wahab (Democratic, Incumbent)
Carmen Montano
88
7
3
1
1
OptionProbability
Zohran Mamdani
Am I the creator?
Other
Andrew Yang
Andrew Cuomo
Brad Lander
No one
Santa Claus
78
50
34
9
3
2
1
1
OptionProbability
NO
YES
388
283
OptionProbability
Brian Goldsmith (Democratic)
John Erickson (Democratic)
Mike Newhouse (Democratic)
Nico Ruderman
Other
Eric Alegria (Democratic)
Ellen Evans (Democratic)
Sion Roy (Democratic)
Zennon Ulyate-Crow
Kristina Irwin (Republican)
Brittany McKinley (Democratic)
45
27
4
4
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
OptionProbability
Catherine Blakespear (Democratic, Incumbent)
Other
93
7
OptionVotes
YES
NO
662
421
OptionProbability
YES
NO
119
101
OptionVotes
NO
YES
106
77
