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Advent International Buys Sapiens for $2.5 Billion in Cash Deal

1 day ago

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

32.98%chance

5710753

OptionVotes

YES

11036

10936

Will a previously unknown civilization be discovered in Antarctica by 2027?

Dec 16, 1:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.33%chance

171278

OptionVotes

YES

1525

924

Will humanity still exist in 2100?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.08%chance

261148

OptionVotes

YES

1382

896

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

3.48%chance

14755

OptionVotes

YES

1439

947

By 2035, what whacky types of cultivated/lab-grown meat will be commercially available?

Jan 18, 12:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13556

OptionProbability

Dog

Blue whale

Homo Sapiens Sapiens

Panda

Platypus

Bat

Pangolin

Wooly mammoth

Passenger Pigeon

Saber tooth tiger

Neanderthal

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

4.82%chance

14495

OptionVotes

YES

1296

951

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Aug 16, 11:56 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.64%chance

8491

OptionVotes

YES

1076

930

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

Apr 25, 9:38 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

11448

OptionProbability

Mars

We will obscure the definition of "human"

Moon

Venus

Other

On the space ship, returning to Earth from another planet

An asteroid towed to a Lagrange point

Biological humanity will cease to exist first

space

Titan

Europa

Ganymede

A habitable exoplanet not currently known

Callisto

Rhea

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

Aug 19, 10:50 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

6148

OptionProbability

≥1 bones (like Denisova 4, Homo denisova, ~60kya)

≥2 bones (like Xiahe mandible, Homo denisova, ~160kya)

≥20 bones (enough for ~complete skull, like La Ferrassie 1, Homo neanderthalensis, ~50kya)

No more fossils found

≥40 bones (like AL 288-1 / Lucy / Dinkʼinesh, Australopithecus afarensis, ~3.2Mya)

≥100 bones (like KNM-WT 15000 / Turkana Boy / Nariokotome Boy, Homo erectus, ~1.5Mya)

≥200 bones (~complete skeleton, like Barum Woman / Bäckaskogskvinna, Homo sapiens, ~9kya)

≥200 bones plus preserved soft tissues (mummified body, like Ötzi / The Iceman, Homo sapiens, ~5.2kya)

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Prediction markets for Sapiens

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Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a previously unknown civilization be discovered in Antarctica by 2027?

Will humanity still exist in 2100?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?

By 2035, what whacky types of cultivated/lab-grown meat will be commercially available?

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Will a major social media platform implement privacy-preserving proof of personhood by 2030?

Where will we have our first non-earth human baby?

What will be the most complete individual Denisovan fossil discovered by 2035?

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