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Prediction markets for Satoshi

Will any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?

Feb 24, 4:35 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

8217548

OptionProbability

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Dorian Nakamoto

Nick Szabo

Len Sassaman

Paul Le Roux

13

1

1

1

1

1

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto

Jul 8, 10:15 PMJul 7, 6:59 AM

8912231

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Craig Wright

Sinclair Chen

Satoshi Nakamoto

Peter Todd

An Intelligence Agency

Wei Dai

Dorian Nakamoto

Jack Dorsey

Steve Sokolowski

Curtis Yarvin

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Elon Musk

Vitalik Buterin

[INVALID]

@Mira

[Invalid]

@jim

31

24

14

9

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence)

Apr 9, 8:18 PMDec 31, 9:24 PM

265813

OptionProbability

Other

Adam Back

Hal Finney

Len Sassaman

Nick Szabo

Peter Todd

Dorian Nakamoto

Craig Wright

33

29

15

11

7

4

2

1

Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?

Aug 2, 4:39 AMJan 19, 8:14 AM

3.09%chance

444833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3256

770

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:58 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

43.75%chance

584071

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1228

305

Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?

Apr 19, 7:52 AMJan 28, 8:59 PM

35.61%chance

272606

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1459

596

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Nov 26, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

44.88%chance

321928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1230

291

Is Satoshi Nakamoto = Craig Wright?

Jun 15, 11:43 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.41%chance

241607

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1902

909

Will Satoshi Nakamoto spend any bitcoin before 2035?

Dec 7, 11:10 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

31.36%chance

261518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

797

Is Peter Todd Satoshi Nakamoto?

Oct 13, 7:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 PM

1%chance

131081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

10

Will Forbes put Satoshi Nakamoto on The World's Billionaires list by 2030?

Jan 12, 5:01 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.98%chance

15250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1152

946

Will the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be known before 2035?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

42.54%chance

536

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

94

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