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Prediction markets for SB

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1852

540

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Aug 29, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

152594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will Bad Bunny make a political statement of some kind during the SB halftime show?

Dec 26, 6:57 PMFeb 8, 11:59 PM

91%chance

442166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

318

31

If passed, will SB 1047 cover any Open Source model before 2029, not including those of Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic, etc?

Aug 29, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.35%chance

61165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1098

911

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Sep 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.56%chance

7860

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1350

741

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.52%chance

12682

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1585

631

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 7:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.48%chance

3504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1461

940

California's Federal Law Enforcement Mask Ban (SB 627) Prop Bets

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 10:43 PM

2191

OptionProbability

Blocked by any court

Overturned by SCOTUS on the merits

At least one penalty enforced against non-federal LEO under the law (survives appeal)

At least one individual arrested under the law

At least one penalty enforced against federal official under the law (survives appeal)

87

76

25

24

17

Will "SB-1047 Documentary: The Post-Mortem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 3, 1:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

2171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

977

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

954

Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?

Oct 1, 5:23 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

50.5%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

990

Newsom's SB 9 suspension rolled back?

Aug 7, 8:21 PMAug 1, 8:14 PM

50%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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