SB News

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

9.9%chance

5035410

OptionVotes

YES

30368

3400

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

Sep 4, 10:31 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

1711580

OptionProbability

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 doesn't become law. Llama 4 is not open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is open source

SB 1047 becomes law. Llama 4 is not open source

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

Sep 30, 12:27 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.58%chance

124233

OptionVotes

YES

1852

540

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

Aug 29, 2:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.28%chance

162595

OptionVotes

YES

2673

374

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Sep 9, 8:57 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

64.56%chance

7860

OptionVotes

YES

1350

741

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Oct 8, 8:43 AMNov 7, 11:59 PM

71.39%chance

14686

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 2, 7:35 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

9.48%chance

3504

OptionVotes

YES

1461

940

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

Sep 2, 4:46 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

29.93%chance

13452

OptionVotes

YES

153

California's Federal Law Enforcement Mask Ban (SB 627) Prop Bets

Sep 20, 9:48 PMJan 1, 10:43 PM

3196

OptionProbability

Blocked by any court

Overturned by SCOTUS on the merits

At least one penalty enforced against non-federal LEO under the law (survives appeal)

At least one individual arrested under the law

At least one penalty enforced against federal official under the law (survives appeal)

100

Will "SB-1047 Documentary: The Post-Mortem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Aug 3, 1:14 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.14%chance

2171

OptionVotes

YES

1151

977

Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?

Oct 1, 5:23 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

51.48%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

1030

971

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

Sep 27, 10:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.64%chance

250

OptionVotes

YES

1048

954

SB News

Prediction markets for SB

Prediction markets for SB

Prediction markets for SB

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Will SB 1047 become law? Will Meta open source Llama 4 (or equivalent)

AI tools will cause mass casualties or $500mn harm before 2029 such as would have been covered under SB 1047.

If passed, will 2 or more AI orgs significantly shift their operations from California and give SB 1047 as the reason?

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

If SB-1047 (or reasonably similar legislation) is run as a ballot initiative in California in 2026, will it pass?

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will Gavin Newsom veto the "Plug and Play" solar bill SB 868

California's Federal Law Enforcement Mask Ban (SB 627) Prop Bets

Will "SB-1047 Documentary: The Post-Mortem" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Will federal legislation pre-empt CA SB 53 by Nov 2028?

If SB 1047 is not passed and an AI tool causes $500mn of damages, will the respective AI lab pay over 10% in damages?

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