OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Enrich himself & his family financially
Shake hands with Putin
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Play golf
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Start a war
Deny Climate Change
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Increase US oil production
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Exercise
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Get impeached
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Pardon himself
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Leave office early
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
End SBA direct lending
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Eat a hamnhrb
Pass away
Die
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Pardon SBF
Make America Great Again
Order a nuclear strike
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Ban TikTok
Withdraw the US from NATO
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Cry on camera
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Buy Greenland
Do another Home Alone cameo
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
98
96
95
90
89
89
88
87
85
81
81
77
77
76
73
72
71
70
69
66
65
65
63
63
60
60
57
56
49
49
43
41
38
34
33
32
28
27
27
26
24
24
21
20
18
17
17
16
16
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14
14
13
11
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5
5
5
3
3
0
