OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Deny Climate Change
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Increase US oil production
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Enrich himself & his family financially
Shake hands with Putin
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Start a war
Play golf
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Exercise
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Get impeached
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Pardon himself
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Leave office early
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
End SBA direct lending
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Eat a hamnhrb
Pass away
Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar
Pardon SBF
Make America Great Again
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Die
Order a nuclear strike
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Ban TikTok
Withdraw the US from NATO
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Cry on camera
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Do another Home Alone cameo
Buy Greenland
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
89
88
82
80
78
77
77
77
75
75
72
71
67
65
63
63
60
57
54
49
47
43
38
34
34
33
32
27
27
26
26
24
24
18
17
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
14
14
13
11
10
10
9
8
7
7
5
5
5
5
3
2
0
