OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Enrich himself & his family financially
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Play golf
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Deny Climate Change
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Increase US oil production
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Shake hands with Putin
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Exercise
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Get impeached
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Pardon himself
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Leave office early
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Start a war
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
End SBA direct lending
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Eat a hamnhrb
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Pass away
Die
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Pardon SBF
Make America Great Again
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Withdraw the US from NATO
Ban TikTok
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Cry on camera
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Order a nuclear strike
Do another Home Alone cameo
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Buy Greenland
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
96
95
90
89
89
87
85
85
81
81
79
77
75
75
72
72
71
70
66
65
64
61
61
56
55
54
54
51
49
48
42
41
41
39
38
33
32
28
28
26
26
24
24
20
18
17
16
16
15
14
14
13
12
10
10
9
9
8
7
5
5
5
4
4
3
2
0
