OptionProbability
Post a Tweet
Deny Climate Change
Promote the product of a supporter from the Oval Office
Withdraw the US from the Paris Climate Agreement
Bomb Iran
Increase US oil production
Pardon a person convicted of a violent crime against police (e.g. January 6 insurrectionists)
Appoint a federal judge who is rated NQ (Not Qualified) by the American Bar Association
Enrich himself & his family financially
Shake hands with Putin
Call a national emergency for a non-foreign affairs issue
Post on Social Media that the DOJ should investigate somebody who is subsequently investigated by the DOJ
Reverse Biden's executive order on AI
Start a war
Have a net approval below -20% at any point
Play golf
Visit a golf course more than 10% of the days he spends in office
Shake hands with Xi Jinping
Suppress, censor, or shut down any US news media outlet (including websites)
Detain large numbers of legal immigrants as part of a program ostensibly targeting illegal immigrants
Sign bills with a Sharpie or similar
Initiate tariffs that would apply to GPUs from Taiwan
Exercise
Suggest his face should be added to mount rushmore
Attend at least one current state leader funeral
Question the effectiveness or safety of vaccines in general
Fire someone he nominated to a government position via social media (“fired by tweet”)
Threaten a world leader with nuclear attack
Visit a golf course more than 20% of the days he spends in office
Comment Publicly on the Investment Merits of DJT Stock
Get impeached
Pardon himself
Shake hands with Donald Tusk
Have to have the VP (or someone else) be acting president for any amount of time
Pardon someone with the last name Trump (excluding himself)
Withdraw support for Ukraine
Suggests in a speech or verified written format that Cuba join as a state
Attempt or claim to seize direct military control of DC via the Insurrection Act, martial law, or similar
Authorize or explicitly endorse violence against peaceful protesters
Appoint a Justice to the Supreme Court
Implement and make laws of deep funding cuts to nih, cdc, fda, hhs, epa
End SBA direct lending
Trumped-Up Charges: Trump appoints an Attorney General whose office goes on to seek a criminal indictment against ex-President Joseph Biden.
Attempt to stay in power for a third term
Shut down left-wing pro democracy and pro science organizations
Leave office early
Eat a hamnhrb
Reference "Situational Awareness"
Advocate or support a genocide (anywhere in the world)
Abolish the CDC
Order the US military to attack US citizens on US soil
Abolish the NIH
Imprison his enemies and democrats
Use the powers of his office to hurt Elon Musk's competitors
Pardon SBF
Be the subject of a successful invocation of the 25th amendment
Make America Great Again
Register with the Federal Election Commission to run for president
Imprison Fauci
Cancel or declare the midterm elections invalid
Make an executive order with the stated intention of slowing down AI development
Declassify the existence of non human intelligence.
Eliminate Daylight Savings Time
Instruct the military to fire on protesters with live bullets, leading to at least one death
Talk with Kim Jong Un face to face
Order the extrajudicial killing of a (named) US citizen on US soil
Die
Pass away
Ban TikTok
Withdraw the US from NATO
Order the extrajudicial killing of any federal or state elected official
Signs a bill that admits a new state to the Union.
Order a nuclear strike
Completely withdraw United States Forces Korea
Here's Johnny: Trump again appoints John Bolton to an official position in his administration.
Cry on camera
Be in some type of official captivity at any level before the end of the planned term in 2029
Direct the killing of a political opponent
Do another Home Alone cameo
Buy Greenland
Have over +20 net approval according to 538, at any point
Be removed via the 25th Amendment
Sign a bill into law on day one
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
95
91
90
88
87
86
80
79
74
73
72
71
67
67
63
58
55
54
53
53
49
44
34
32
31
30
30
26
26
25
24
24
23
23
22
21
18
18
16
16
16
16
15
15
15
14
14
14
12
11
11
10
9
9
8
8
7
6
5
5
3
2
2
2
0
