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Prediction markets for Sberbank

Will a Russian-developed LLM reach the top 100 on LMSYS Chatbot Arena by end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8.77%chance

156407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3224

310

Which Chinese tech companies announce a formal AI partnership with a Russian entity before 2027?

Oct 29, 2:22 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52825

OptionProbability

SenseTime

Huawei

Alibaba

ByteDance

Xiaomi

Lenovo

Cambricon

Deepseek

Tencent

Baidu

Zhipu AI

Moonshot AI

MiniMax

iFlyTek

18

17

17

12

10

10

10

9

9

9

9

9

9

9

Will the Sberbank of Russia collapse before EOY 2030?

Mar 13, 1:45 PMDec 31, 7:59 PM

4.28%chance

8663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

775

87

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34%chance

6565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1393

718

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

52.33%chance

6247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1115

1009

Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?

Oct 29, 1:25 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

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