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Prediction markets for SBF

How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?

Oct 11, 8:47 PMOct 19, 6:59 AM

337144402

OptionProbability

20-30 years

10-20 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

50+ years

<2 years

30-40 years

40-50 years

53

35

9

1

1

0

0

0

Will Trump pardon SBF?

Aug 21, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.27%chance

12636015

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3135

320

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

9.9%chance

5035410

OptionVotes

YES

NO

30368

3400

Will SBF be physically in prison/jail at the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 5:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

88.69%chance

303635

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1908

810

Will SBF receive a pardon or have his sentence commuted by 2030?

Mar 29, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.76%chance

332618

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

736

Will SBF serve his full 25 year sentence?

Mar 28, 3:51 PMApr 5, 3:59 AM

17.68%chance

192238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

907

Will SBF go to “the pen”?

Jan 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

801

Will SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies

Mar 29, 11:46 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

22%chance

271963

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

960

SBF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:26 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

271771

OptionProbability

NO

YES

529

514

Will SBF be released by the start of 2045?

Mar 28, 4:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

131593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

888

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

Dec 15, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.46%chance

281350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

957

945

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

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