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Prediction markets for SBF

How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?

Oct 11, 8:47 PMOct 19, 6:59 AM

336144323

OptionProbability

20-30 years

10-20 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

50+ years

<2 years

30-40 years

40-50 years

51

33

14

1

1

0

0

0

Will Trump pardon SBF?

Aug 21, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.66%chance

11432203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2900

346

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

17.22%chance

4128517

OptionVotes

YES

NO

22013

4663

Will SBF receive a pardon or have his sentence commuted by 2030?

Mar 29, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.65%chance

322593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

711

Will SBF serve his full 25 year sentence?

Mar 28, 3:51 PMApr 5, 3:59 AM

18.46%chance

192188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1214

918

Will SBF go to “the pen”?

Jan 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14%chance

222102

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

801

Will SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies

Mar 29, 11:46 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

26.12%chance

271911

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1012

882

SBF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:26 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

271771

OptionProbability

NO

YES

529

514

SBF Redemption Arc

Nov 11, 11:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

14.94%chance

241663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1291

915

Will SBF be released by the start of 2045?

Mar 28, 4:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.05%chance

131593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1196

888

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

Dec 15, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.46%chance

281350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

957

945

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

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