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Prediction markets for SBF

How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?

Oct 11, 8:47 PMOct 19, 6:59 AM

333144139

OptionProbability

20-30 years

10-20 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

<2 years

30-40 years

40-50 years

50+ years

53

31

14

1

0

0

0

0

Will Trump pardon SBF?

Aug 21, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.98%chance

10929929

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2481

403

Will Trump pardon or commute SBF's sentence?

Oct 27, 6:35 PMJan 20, 11:59 AM

15.45%chance

3326485

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23397

4274

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.6%chance

12520188

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10828

996

Is this post from SBF's X account posted by SBF himself?

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

69.1%chance

63109

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1495

669

Will SBF receive a pardon or have his sentence commuted by 2030?

Mar 29, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.65%chance

322593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1061

711

Will SBF serve his full 25 year sentence?

Mar 28, 3:51 PMApr 5, 3:59 AM

19.29%chance

182138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

930

SBF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:26 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

271771

OptionProbability

NO

YES

529

514

Will SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies

Mar 29, 11:46 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

25.07%chance

251653

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

920

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

Dec 15, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

60.56%chance

271097

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

612

Will SBF go to “the pen”?

Jan 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22%chance

201043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

926

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

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