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Prediction markets for SBF

How much time will SBF serve in jail/prison/house-arrest?

Oct 11, 8:47 PMOct 19, 6:59 AM

332143983

OptionProbability

20-30 years

10-20 years

5-10 years

2-5 years

<2 years

30-40 years

40-50 years

50+ years

55

27

15

1

0

0

0

0

Will Trump pardon SBF?

Aug 21, 6:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.56%chance

9125474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3497

286

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

Nov 12, 6:06 AMJan 1, 8:01 AM

3.51%chance

12519967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11049

988

Will SBF be physically in prison/jail at the end of 2026?

Jan 11, 5:17 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

81.57%chance

232630

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1229

924

Is this post from SBF's X account posted by SBF himself?

Feb 25, 11:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.95%chance

62542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2062

485

Will SBF receive a pardon or have his sentence commuted by 2030?

Mar 29, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.58%chance

302493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

661

Will SBF serve his full 25 year sentence?

Mar 28, 3:51 PMApr 5, 3:59 AM

19.29%chance

182138

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1164

930

SBF Stock (Permanent)

Nov 16, 4:26 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

271771

OptionProbability

NO

YES

529

514

Will SBF be released from prison before Donald Trump dies

Mar 29, 11:46 AMDec 6, 4:59 AM

21.05%chance

231601

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1094

947

Will SBF go to “the pen”?

Jan 3, 3:41 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

22%chance

201043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1174

926

Will SBF spend at least a decade in prison?

Dec 15, 8:57 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.97%chance

23917

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1002

938

Will the Sagrada Familia be fully finished before SBF is released from prison

Mar 28, 7:06 PMDec 5, 4:59 AM

72.03%chance

20686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

937

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