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Prediction markets for SCA

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.06%chance

1047632621

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16041

15185

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

40%chance

24919563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2714

1726

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

2.33%chance

8617343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1462

95

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.61%chance

5310397

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1134

941

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.67%chance

949028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

366

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.48%chance

445364

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1478

875

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

834

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Will Elon Musk be buried on or have his ashes scattered on Mars when he dies?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.67%chance

40861

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2059

1956

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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