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Prediction markets for SCA

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.19%chance

861470662

OptionVotes

NO

YES

15727

12532

am i fucked (will a CT scan show calcification in my basal ganglia)

Jul 22, 9:06 PMOct 21, 8:44 PM

2.81%chance

326299072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

58813

1700

Will there be a "large-scale bird flu outbreak" (100+ human confirmed H5N1 cases) in the US by the end of 2025?

Mar 26, 2:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.12%chance

223159370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

24750

3958

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in 2025?

Jan 14, 6:38 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5.38%chance

109129265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4195

238

Will there be a fraud/criminal scandal that harms EA reputation as much as the FTX crash harmed EA reputation, before 2030?

Dec 13, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.47%chance

4361271

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11722

4317

By the end of 2028, will there be a public scandal about someone's brain signals being collected or analyzed without their consent?

Feb 9, 10:58 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.95%chance

24419019

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2678

1780

Which AI companies will release a top-scoring LLM on the Scale AI Coding benchmark in 2025?

Dec 28, 7:34 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2418075

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

Meta

DeepSeek

xAI

Any Chinese Company

35

34

33

32

30

29

27

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.22%chance

878668

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2680

373

Will a sex scandal negatively affect the reputation of AI xrisk in the next five years?

Jun 18, 9:55 PMJun 19, 4:59 AM

71.02%chance

562877

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

834

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will Elon Musk be buried on or have his ashes scattered on Mars when he dies?

Mar 26, 5:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.07%chance

40849

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2032

1968

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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