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Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

33.31%chance

990553403

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16145

11680

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

8.3%chance

6814045

OptionVotes

YES

NO

550

136

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.84%chance

949025

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2749

369

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

21.31%chance

467164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

940

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.54%chance

293163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1153

817

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.01%chance

412724

OptionVotes

NO

YES

178

169

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.91%chance

122179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

232

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

23%chance

312128

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1003

883

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

381311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

873

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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