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Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.58%chance

1041626074

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16994

12988

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2026?

Mar 3, 3:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.16%chance

8516823

OptionVotes

YES

NO

942

112

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.64%chance

529488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

914

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.67%chance

949028

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2771

366

Will there be another HuggingFace like public incident (of the same scale) before Sep 2027?

Aug 31, 12:01 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

88.48%chance

278239

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2771

361

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.88%chance

435225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

897

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.36%chance

492879

OptionVotes

YES

NO

220

151

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.91%chance

122179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

232

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34%chance

17623

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

865

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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