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Prediction markets for Scale

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?

May 24, 1:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

32.78%chance

940538591

OptionVotes

NO

YES

16043

11887

Artificially produced gold on a significant scale by 2035?

Jul 18, 10:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.05%chance

938973

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2721

373

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2028?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

29%chance

426693

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1074

678

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2100?

Mar 30, 1:18 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.51%chance

283063

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

913

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2029?

Mar 3, 3:58 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.26%chance

402719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

177

173

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Nov 19, 4:05 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

72.44%chance

262593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1621

617

Will a utility-scale solar PPA be made for <$10/MWh by the end of 2026?

Jul 9, 6:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

30.91%chance

122179

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1554

232

Will there be a new large-scale virus that infects more than 100,000,000 unique people before 2030?

Dec 13, 2:51 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.43%chance

292044

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

706

Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2027?

Mar 3, 3:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.13%chance

231585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1016

841

Will Earth have space-based solar power at scale by 2060?

Aug 29, 10:03 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31%chance

381311

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

873

By 2060, will humanity harness and utilize energy on a scale approaching Type I on the Kardashev scale?

Mar 10, 10:45 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

28.52%chance

16546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

966

What will be the half life of Flerovium-298? (Log scale)

Nov 24, 5:22 PMNov 29, 7:59 AM

28.7%chance

6215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

125

94

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