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Prediction markets for SCALE Initiative

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.87%chance

294110933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11390

5011

Will Zvi Mowshowitz 'like' each of these movies?

Aug 25, 3:08 AMDec 31, 6:53 PM

2913406

OptionProbability

The Man Who Killed Don Quioxte

Brazil

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty

Mr. Nobody

The Assessment

Revlover

The Congress (2013)

Lurker

Code 3

Masthishka Maranam

The Banshees of Inisherin

The Fountain

The French Dispatch

The Square

The Artist

Swiss Army Man

Cosmopolis

Cloud Atlas

Southland Tales

Fitzcarraldo

Welcome to the N-H-K

The Grand Budapest Hotel

62

61

60

54

51

50

50

50

50

50

50

49

49

48

47

46

45

43

43

40

39

0

OpenAI sells/rents AI compute to external customers by end-2026?

Nov 7, 7:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.28%chance

264385

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3328

300

Will Baidu driverless cars be available to ride in London in 2026?

Dec 22, 6:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.15%chance

152322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2570

389

10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?

Oct 17, 4:48 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10%chance

92218

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.71%chance

332036

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1534

660

Will Elon's Terafab produce a single chip before 2028?

Mar 25, 5:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.78%chance

212033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1573

636

Will even 500m of Saudi Arabia's "The Line" project be built until 2030?

May 18, 11:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.24%chance

131830

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

555

9. One of the large global pharma companies will acquire one of the leading protein AI startups.

Dec 28, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

101503

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1653

607

Does RL training with verifiers help on tasks without a verifier?

Dec 4, 11:56 AMDec 5, 11:49 AM

46.32%chance

14846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

929

Will "How Well Does RL Scale?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Oct 24, 10:26 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.56%chance

3324

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1038

794

Will "Sequent: scale and automation for higher conf..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 4:55 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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