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Prediction markets for SCALE Initiative

Will the "Mad Scientists Theory of Governance" be cited by someone important?

Nov 26, 6:57 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

74.89%chance

311936

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1629

626

Which countries will the US invade during Trump second term?

Mar 3, 5:16 AMJan 21, 3:59 AM

311425

OptionProbability

Canada

Mexico

Ukraine

Russia

Panama

Denmark

13

11

10

9

8

8

Trump deport people in 2025?

Apr 18, 1:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8650

What year will the cost of solar energy drop to 2 cents/kWh?

Mar 30, 2:14 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7426

Will training on o1/o3 traces improve GPT-5 performance on a broad set of tasks?

Jan 17, 11:57 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

62.98%chance

3180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

What's the explanation for the "Orion Jumbos"?

Jan 2, 6:21 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

5176

OptionProbability

Ejected Planetary Objects

Other

Dark Matter Interaction

Gravitational Fragmentation

Binary Coalescence

Unidentified Physical Phenomenon

Quantum Fluctuation

Alien Engineering

37

17

14

9

9

7

4

3

Saudi NEOM project faces pause, downsizing, or lawsuit before 2026?

Jun 7, 3:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.6%chance

6130

OptionVotes

NO

YES

192

52

Will ""Can AI Scaling Continue Through 2030?", Epoc..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 27, 4:10 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.73%chance

1100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

985

Will "impact markets" distribute more than $10m of grant funding before 2030?

Nov 1, 10:00 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

73.01%chance

442

OptionVotes

NO

YES

245

182

When will bioelectricity be used for organ or tissue regeneration?

Nov 19, 7:31 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

231

OptionProbability

Before 2050

Before 2040

Before 2030

61

44

32

Will "Reducing LLM deception at scale with self-oth..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Jul 11, 9:53 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

114

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "Scaling and evaluating sparse autoencoders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Jun 10, 9:48 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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