Scenario News

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.02%chance

504175

OptionVotes

YES

1528

654

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 21, 11:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

392423

OptionProbability

Other

NATO versus ( Russia + China )

( NATO + Russia ) versus China

( NATO + China ) versus Russia

When will a fast take-off scenario occur?

Feb 12, 1:13 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

201686

OptionProbability

After 2030 / Never

Before 2030

Before 2027

Before 2026

Before 2025

Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]

Mar 14, 1:09 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

23.07%chance

121140

OptionVotes

YES

1826

548

Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?

Jul 16, 10:08 PMDec 31, 9:45 PM

10559

OptionProbability

3) Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns

1) Prolonged limbo via security delays

4) Major charges dropped via plea/deal

2) Immunity law passed

6) The trial runs its course and he is convicted

7) The trial runs its course and he is fully acquitted

5) Trial canceled due to Trump pressure

Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)?

Jun 29, 12:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

44.07%chance

14393

OptionVotes

YES

1046

945

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Scenario #1: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Chad in 2026?

Mar 5, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

459

OptionProbability

Other

Libya

Central African Republic

Niger

Cameroon

Nigeria

Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.95%chance

252

OptionVotes

YES

1052

732

Scenario #2: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Ethiopia in 2026?

Mar 11, 11:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

250

OptionProbability

Other

South Sudan

Eritrea

Djibouti

Somalia

Kenya

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #1

May 15, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111

OptionProbability

Eritrea

Somalia

Kenya

Djibouti

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #4

May 15, 1:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

Democratic Republic of Congo

Republic of Congo

Cameroon

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Prediction markets for Scenario

Prediction markets for Scenario

Prediction markets for Scenario

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

When will a fast take-off scenario occur?

Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]

Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?

Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)?

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Scenario #1: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Chad in 2026?

Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Scenario #2: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Ethiopia in 2026?

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #1

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #4

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