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Prediction markets for Scenario

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

62.73%chance

514506

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1297

771

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 21, 11:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

412469

OptionProbability

Other

NATO versus ( Russia + China )

( NATO + Russia ) versus China

( NATO + China ) versus Russia

52

25

17

6

Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]

Mar 14, 1:09 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

27%chance

141311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

251303

OptionProbability

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#3 – “Stalemate”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

28

25

19

15

13

Which of the following scenarios is likely to occur regarding Netanyahu’s trial?

Jul 16, 10:08 PMDec 31, 9:45 PM

131254

OptionProbability

1) Prolonged limbo via security delays

4) Major charges dropped via plea/deal

2) Immunity law passed

6) The trial runs its course and he is convicted

5) Trial canceled due to Trump pressure

3) Attorney General is removed, sidelined, or resigns

7) The trial runs its course and he is fully acquitted

86

48

47

42

31

19

18

Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)?

Jun 29, 12:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

44.07%chance

14393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

945

Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

30.9%chance

2152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

419

Scenario #1: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Chad in 2026?

Mar 5, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

459

OptionProbability

Other

Libya

Central African Republic

Niger

Cameroon

Nigeria

21

18

18

18

12

12

Scenario #2: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Ethiopia in 2026?

Mar 11, 11:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

250

OptionProbability

Other

South Sudan

Eritrea

Djibouti

Somalia

Kenya

26

23

21

10

10

10

Running probability that we are in the overshoot and collapse scenario of world3 and its 2023 recalibration.

Dec 3, 9:38 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

41.41%chance

345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

119

84

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #1

May 15, 1:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

111

OptionProbability

Eritrea

Somalia

Kenya

Djibouti

27

27

27

20

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #4

May 15, 1:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12

OptionProbability

Democratic Republic of Congo

Republic of Congo

Cameroon

34

33

33

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