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Prediction markets for Scenario

AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)?

May 29, 12:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.5%chance

534616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1378

726

Will the Citrini scenario happen? [Kalshi]

Mar 14, 1:09 PMJun 30, 10:59 PM

18%chance

182557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2134

469

Assuming a potential future World War scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 21, 11:01 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

412469

OptionProbability

Other

NATO versus ( Russia + China )

( NATO + Russia ) versus China

( NATO + China ) versus Russia

52

25

17

6

Assuming a potential future war scenario, how will the three main powers align?

Sep 25, 2:37 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

361662

OptionProbability

🇺🇸 USA versus ( 🇷🇺 Russia + 🇨🇳 China )

🇨🇳 China versus ( 🇺🇸 USA + 🇷🇺 Russia )

Other

🇷🇺 Russia versus ( 🇺🇸 USA + 🇨🇳 China )

62

16

12

9

Which of Nate Silver’s four scenarios for the next era of American politics will come true?

Jan 23, 7:07 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

261353

OptionProbability

#3 – “Stalemate”

#4 – “Off the Charts”

#1 – “Conservative Golden Age”

#2 – “The New Liberal Era is Still Alive, Baby!”

None of them

34

25

17

13

11

Will we have a scenario like "2030: Takeover" as defined in AI 2027 before the end of Q1, 2030?

Jul 6, 6:48 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

19.06%chance

41109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2061

485

Will global temperature drop by at least 1°C for a year by 2050 (e.g. nuclear winter scenario)?

Jun 29, 12:46 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

44.07%chance

14393

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

945

Will "The Case for Low-Competence ASI Failure Scenarios" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 7:11 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

30.9%chance

2152

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

419

What fraction of ETH will be staked on 2028-01-01 in the following scenarios?

Apr 3, 11:21 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

3132

OptionProbability

No staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

Any scenario

A staking ratio target is live on mainnet before 2026-01-01

63

46

29

Scenario #1: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Chad in 2026?

Mar 5, 1:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

459

OptionProbability

Other

Libya

Central African Republic

Niger

Cameroon

Nigeria

21

18

18

18

12

12

Scenario #2: Which of the countries will the Sudan's war spillover after Ethiopia in 2026?

Mar 11, 11:22 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

250

OptionProbability

Other

South Sudan

Eritrea

Djibouti

Somalia

Kenya

26

23

21

10

10

10

Which country will Sudan's conflict spillover in 2026? Scenario #4

May 15, 1:58 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12

OptionProbability

Democratic Republic of Congo

Republic of Congo

Cameroon

34

33

33

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