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Prediction markets for Scientific

Are the Mexican alien bodies real? (scientific journal, 2025)

Sep 13, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3%chance

220132951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4085

2381

How will scientific consensus in 2050 apportion the causes of increased life expectancy from 1000AD to 2000AD in Europe?

Jun 27, 4:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35121190

OptionProbability

increased sanitation / hygiene / clean air+water

vaccines and antibiotics

medical ex-vaccines/antibiotics

all other cuases

improved diet

reduced war / homicide / execution / child abandonment

27

21

19

19

18

15

Will the scientific consensus that the universe's expansion is accelerating end before the end of 2030?

Sep 2, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6.46%chance

9474496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4308

1696

Will OpenAI pay scientific publishers for content by EOY 2025?

Jun 11, 4:41 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.04%chance

29058871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19956

2816

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.66%chance

2629444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

867

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.2%chance

12320750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1602

1265

Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?

Feb 18, 8:40 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

20%chance

1246864

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1772

1496

Will it be scientific consensus that there is currently microscopic life on Mars by 2034?

Jan 6, 12:18 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

15.6%chance

813322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2052

1285

Will AI surpass humans in conducting scientific research by 2030?

Nov 9, 2:56 PMSep 2, 3:59 AM

30.02%chance

311983

OptionVotes

NO

YES

989

959

In 2035, will there be a scientific consensus that at least 1000 Americans died as a direct result of the Covid vaccine?

Sep 16, 4:24 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

63.14%chance

381771

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1344

716

In 2030, will Wikipedia's article on Race and Intelligence still falsely claim the existence of a scientific consensus for 0% genetic causation?

Sep 1, 4:19 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

40.92%chance

16608

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

966

Will a scientific discovery extend human lifespan by more than 10 years within the next 20 years?

Mar 15, 12:30 AMDec 22, 2:59 AM

36.9%chance

18508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

994

990

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