SCO News

China’s $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus and $512.4 Billion SCO Trade Highlight 14th Five-Year Plan Progress

5 months ago

Shanghai Cooperation Organization Summit 2025 Held Aug 31-Sept 1 in Tianjin With Leaders From 20+ Countries and 10 Intl Organizations

5 months ago

Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Nov 20, 8:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.75%chance

10842699

OptionVotes

YES

11769

8879

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

Jul 19, 2:29 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

67.77%chance

15037943

OptionVotes

YES

10179

9344

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.44%chance

11933296

OptionVotes

YES

7134

6564

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Dec 8, 10:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2826587

OptionProbability

Above 160

Above 170

Above 180

Above 200

Above 225

Above 250

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Jul 19, 2:27 PMJul 31, 11:59 PM

43.54%chance

4520709

OptionVotes

YES

11745

8426

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Jan 28, 11:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.9%chance

2116066

OptionVotes

YES

17426

6658

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

18124

6187

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

7910194

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Dec 30, 4:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76163

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

May 28, 7:56 AMJan 2, 2:59 AM

26.12%chance

19749

OptionVotes

YES

1232

893

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

Mar 31, 7:04 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

28.8%chance

11360

OptionVotes

YES

10122

9934

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

Jul 26, 5:21 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

OptionProbability

0-10

11-20

21-30

31-40

41+

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Scott Alexander publishes a "Death with Dignity" style post before 2030

Perfect score achieved by an AI model in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) 2026?

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

ECI 2026: Epoch Capabilities Index Highest Score

Open-Source AI model gets perfect IMO 2026 score? [International Math Olympiad 2026]

Will SCOTUS rule that 14A doesn't grant citizenship to US-born children of undocumented immigrant parents by 2030?

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass? (Metaculus forecast, 2027-12-31)

Will Scotland leave the UK by 2040?

By the end of 2035, will any country score 95/9.5 or higher on one of the two major economic freedom indexes?

How many goals will Viktor Gyökeres score in official club competitions in the 2025/2026 season?

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