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Top stories

Scope Ratings Warns French Government Collapse Risks Credit Downgrade

Authors

4

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Scope Ratings

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.25%chance

2236058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

36357

3497

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3133892

OptionProbability

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

20-30%

60-70%

70-80%

10-20%

≥80%

<10%

26

25

17

12

7

5

4

3

2

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.08%chance

161027

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

977

How many years from 13/03/2025 until ASI?

Mar 12, 6:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

9786

OptionProbability

Above 20

3 - 5

6 - 8

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

0 - 2

32

19

10

9

9

9

9

5

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Feb 25, 12:25 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

5665

OptionProbability

3.75%

4.00%

3.50%

4.25%

3.00%

3.25%

4.50%

4.75% or more

2.50% or less

2.75%

36

36

9

8

2

2

2

2

1

1

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.6%chance

13470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

263

38

Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?

Jan 21, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.85%chance

14386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

392

90

Omen/Presagio reaches 5,000 active traders or $25M in 30-day volume before 2027?

Sep 21, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

2101

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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