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Scope Ratings News

Scope Ratings Warns French Government Collapse Risks Credit Downgrade

4

8 months ago

Carried Interest Repeal by End of 2026

Feb 7, 3:15 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

9.04%chance

1826951

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31861

3893

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

Jan 16, 8:49 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2318485

OptionProbability

20-30%

10-20%

30-40%

40-50%

50-60%

<10%

60-70%

70-80%

≥80%

26

19

17

11

7

6

6

5

4

Will any notable scientist or public intellectual posthumously publish as an AI simulacrum before EoY 2027?

Jun 12, 3:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

7.64%chance

226982

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3477

288

How many years from 13/03/2025 until ASI?

Mar 12, 6:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

9786

OptionProbability

Above 20

3 - 5

6 - 8

9 - 11

12 - 14

15 - 17

18 - 20

0 - 2

32

19

10

9

9

9

9

5

LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?

Aug 29, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

42.85%chance

15727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

729

Who will win the 2026 New York Democratic Primary for Governor?

Oct 28, 4:46 AMJul 1, 5:46 AM

5635

OptionProbability

Kathy Hochul (Current Governor)

Antonio Delgado (Current Lt Governor)

Other

98

1

1

What will the Bank of England interest rate be on Jan 1, 2027

Feb 25, 12:25 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

3558

OptionProbability

3.75%

3.50%

3.25%

4.00%

4.25%

3.00%

4.50%

4.75% or more

2.50% or less

2.75%

32

29

10

10

6

3

3

3

2

2

WIll Jerome Powell Be found guilty if indicted?

Jan 12, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11.8%chance

13460

OptionVotes

YES

NO

273

37

Will US fertility rates go above 2 births per woman before 2030?

Jan 21, 3:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.56%chance

13366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

372

92

Omen/Presagio reaches 5,000 active traders or $25M in 30-day volume before 2027?

Sep 21, 12:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.17%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

130

77

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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