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Prediction markets for SCOTUS

If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:19 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.2%chance

15652468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14797

1270

Will SCOTUS strike down the preemptive pardons if it considers the case?

Jan 20, 2:01 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20%chance

3814920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18124

6187

Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?

Apr 9, 2:44 PMApr 17, 3:59 AM

252925

OptionProbability

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Amy Coney Barrett

Neil Gorsuch

Brett Kavanaugh

John Roberts

Elena Kagan

Samuel Alito

Sonia Sotomayor

Clarence Thomas

22

17

13

13

9

9

5

5

4

Will SCOTUS strike down Alaska’s “$95,000 plane for 6 beers” forfeiture?

Aug 7, 3:48 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

86.57%chance

101766

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2538

394

Will SCOTUS rule that gender identity is not a protected class before 2028?

Apr 30, 12:12 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

72.2%chance

271752

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1411

781

Will SCOTUS judges have term limits by 2028-03-23?

Mar 24, 2:22 AMMar 23, 9:17 PM

5.49%chance

141420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2283

854

Will SCOTUS hear a Third Amendment case by EOY 2030?

Jan 1, 9:41 AMDec 9, 5:59 AM

8.42%chance

131163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1599

901

Will the first openly LGBTQIA+ SCOTUS Justice be appointed before 2040?

Jul 3, 11:51 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.13%chance

181101

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

714

Press Freedom: will SCOTUS make it easier for politicians to sue media for defamation?

Aug 13, 5:01 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

6345

OptionProbability

Yes, if a MAGA Republican is elected in 2024

Yes, if a Democrat is elected in 2024

49

37

By 2050, will SCOTUS declare the current civil asset forfeiture system unconstitutional?

Jun 19, 6:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

87.37%chance

7334

OptionVotes

NO

YES

198

78

Will any sitting SCOTUS justice be impeached and convicted this decade?

Apr 7, 9:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.93%chance

9304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

408

132

Will Marshals of SCOTUS deputize over 99 National Guard members during the legal presidential term of Trump?

Apr 15, 8:56 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

15.12%chance

9267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

287

92

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