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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

70.13%chance

6616146

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1532

653

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

338295

OptionProbability

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Michael

Resident Evil

Scary Movie 6

Scream 7

Project Hail Mary

Backrooms

Jumanji Open Would

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Dune: Messiah

Scr

Mort

Hexed

The Great Beyond

Werwulf

Focker-in-Law

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

The Cat in the Hat

Godzilla Minus Zero

Verity

Street Fighter

The Odyssey

GOAT

Disclosure Day

The End of Oak Street

Forgotten Island

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Mortal Kombat II

Wuthering Heights

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Digger

Masters of the Universe

The Social Reckoning

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Animal Friends

Dog Stars

Remain

Moana (live action)

Supergirl

Hoppers

Practical Magic 2

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

73

69

51

50

50

21

15

13

8

8

3

2

1

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

108006

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.99%chance

1167407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1826

1079

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.63%chance

665239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1991

474

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.9%chance

424468

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2773

195

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.09%chance

464236

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3133

1386

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

78%chance

343649

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1883

531

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.34%chance

262807

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1234

811

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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