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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

73.22%chance

5813885

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1653

605

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.49%chance

1157357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1856

1029

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

286106

OptionProbability

The Devil Wears Prada 2

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Michael

Scary Movie 6

Scream 7

Project Hail Mary

Backrooms

Dune: Messiah

Jumanji Open Would

Scr

Mort

Digger

Street Fighter

Hexed

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Focker-in-Law

Resident Evil

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

Werwulf

Dog Stars

The Cat in the Hat

The Great Beyond

The End of Oak Street

Forgotten Island

Verity

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Godzilla Minus Zero

The Social Reckoning

The Odyssey

GOAT

Disclosure Day

Mortal Kombat II

Wuthering Heights

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Masters of the Universe

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Animal Friends

Remain

Moana (live action)

Supergirl

Hoppers

100

100

100

100

100

100

100

78

73

50

50

25

22

21

20

18

17

17

17

17

16

15

13

13

11

10

9

9

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23%chance

644627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1803

525

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.59%chance

124441

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

861

Will The Elder Scrolls 6 release before the end of 2027?

Apr 21, 10:13 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.02%chance

413967

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2175

285

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.96%chance

443811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2708

1538

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

39.66%chance

291833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1233

811

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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