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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

77.72%chance

4810597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1868

535

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.34%chance

1086968

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1899

962

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75280

OptionProbability

Mostly Positive

Very Positive

Mixed

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

24

21

11

10

5

2

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.93%chance

583966

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1411

675

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

30.07%chance

383426

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1525

656

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50.32%chance

351734

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2250

1594

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

52.67%chance

261277

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1272

424

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

53.95%chance

191277

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

924

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.73%chance

14646

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will the standard model iPhone 17 get a 120 hz screen?

Jul 13, 3:02 PMSep 10, 3:01 PM

51.2%chance

9565

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

976

Will AI generates film (not video) by using a person's script before 2026

Nov 10, 4:30 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

50%chance

2487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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