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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

76.78%chance

5211858

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1818

550

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.46%chance

1107068

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1999

830

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

75280

OptionProbability

Mostly Positive

Very Positive

Mixed

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

27

24

21

11

10

5

2

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

51.18%chance

84233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1024

977

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35%chance

584016

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1348

707

Will one person be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, with the help of AI, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

27.47%chance

393526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1625

615

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.99%chance

361784

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2201

1644

By 2030, AI can beat the best human Starcraft 2 players at least 50% of the time, given a video of the screen.

Jan 5, 11:05 AMJan 12, 6:29 PM

68.93%chance

291600

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1085

721

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

52.48%chance

241412

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

952

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will a wild animal be infected with the New World screwworm in the US, before 2027?

Apr 5, 11:57 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.56%chance

15809

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

790

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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