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Prediction markets for SCR

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Aug 28, 9:22 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

68%chance

5512264

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1458

686

What will be the “All Reviews” rating for The Elder Scrolls VI on Steam, 6 months after the release date?

Aug 7, 10:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

97980

OptionProbability

Very Positive

Mixed

Mostly Positive

Overwhelmingly Positive

Mostly Negative

Very Negative

Overwhelmingly Negative

26

23

21

14

9

5

2

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Mar 21, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.15%chance

1147307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1903

957

Will AI be able to rewrite the Linux Kernel from scratch in Rust, mostly autonomously, by EOY 2030?

Jan 2, 2:49 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

33%chance

506638

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1425

702

SCREEN Act passes during 119th Congress?

Aug 4, 6:19 PMJan 2, 11:59 PM

42.78%chance

104413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1157

865

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

Aug 17, 2:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.92%chance

604216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1548

613

Will Linear A (Minoan Script Language) be deciphered by the end of 2029?

Mar 11, 3:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.32%chance

413369

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2608

1581

Which movies will have between $50M and $100M in the 2026 US opening weekend (FSS)?

Feb 3, 10:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

142970

OptionProbability

Michael

Scream 7

Project Hail Mary

The Devil Wears Prada 2

Dune: Messiah

Moana (live action)

The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping

Minions & Monsters (Minions 3)

Scr

Mortal Kombat II

Hexed

Jumanji Open Would

The Odyssey

The Mandalorian and Grogu

Digger

Masters of the Universe

The Great Beyond

The Cat in the Hat

Supergirl

Focker-in-Law

Forgotten Island

Verity

The Social Reckoning

Street Fighter

Ebenezer: A Christmas Carol

The End of Oak Street

Resident Evil

Scary Movie 6

Insidious: The Bleeding World

Lee Cronin's The Mummy

Disclosure Day

Werwulf

Dog Stars

Godzilla Minus Zero

Remain

Animal Friends

GOAT

Wuthering Heights

The Super Mario Galaxy Movie

Hoppers

100

100

100

97

84

54

54

51

50

45

43

43

41

41

41

41

41

41

41

34

34

34

34

34

34

24

24

24

24

24

20

17

17

8

2

1

0

0

0

0

In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie from a script?

Aug 28, 9:21 AMJan 4, 10:59 PM

44.78%chance

261590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

900

Will the triple lock pension be scrapped before the next General Election?

Jan 18, 4:47 PMJul 4, 9:59 PM

47.91%chance

13977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1043

959

Will cobalt and nickel scrap prices stabilize by Q2 2024?

Feb 22, 9:02 AMJun 22, 9:01 AM

53.3%chance

399

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1068

936

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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