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Prediction markets for Scrutiny

Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) by the end of 2027?

Dec 7, 10:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71.75%chance

464679780

OptionVotes

YES

NO

17782

9207

Will something horrible happen to Polymarket deposits by 2030?

Mar 16, 2:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

142449

OptionProbability

Nothing horrible happens

Smart contracts exploited or failed

Stablecoin collapse

Front-end hacked

Rug pull/internal embezzlement

Regulatory crackdown with asset seizure

Other

75

7

5

3

3

3

3

10. The first real AI safety incident will occur.

Dec 27, 8:26 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

52.14%chance

161686

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1044

958

Will Kemi Badenoch be Leader of the Conservative Party On May 1st 2026?

May 3, 6:29 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

30.73%chance

141142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

150

67

Will Tadej Pogacar be found to have used doping by Dec 31 2025

Jul 22, 10:30 PMDec 31, 11:29 PM

2.18%chance

6969

OptionVotes

YES

NO

669

15

Will Taylor Swift use an electric plane for the majority of her air travel by 2035?

Mar 15, 8:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

12.51%chance

13777

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1312

913

Puff Daddy is handed a jail sentence of over 5 years incarceration by 9/1/2025.

Nov 7, 1:31 AMSep 2, 5:59 AM

18.07%chance

13719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

213

47

Will credible evidence emerge by 2035 that the Triads were involved in the deaths of Bruce Lee or Brandon Lee?

Apr 29, 9:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.47%chance

6585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

631

Will the Trump administration go after a SCOTUS justice in 2025?

May 1, 6:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

17.43%chance

8408

OptionVotes

YES

NO

818

506

I dubbbz get divorced before January 1st, 2026?

Jul 19, 1:30 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22%chance

9223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will there be a significant retraction to the AARO 2024 UAP report before 2030?

Mar 21, 3:32 AMJan 1, 3:59 AM

18.71%chance

4204

OptionVotes

YES

NO

277

78

Will Meghan Markle's book outsell Prince Harry's "Spare"?

Apr 23, 8:00 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

25.94%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

186

100

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