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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

64.81%chance

34302735590

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12741

7681

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

29.17%chance

793419470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25491

17311

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

62%chance

456373162

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3815

1473

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.48%chance

209247924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

102188

89894

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

56.72%chance

269119048

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5354

4798

Trump seriously attempts 3rd term in 2028?

Mar 31, 2:57 PMNov 30, 11:59 PM

29.61%chance

336106165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1542

649

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.57%chance

13343186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11734

11213

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

56.82%chance

5726974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

114717

87171

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

83%chance

11419905

OptionVotes

NO

YES

4405

1278

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.65%chance

4911779

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44446

36275

Will SAP SE be the biggest European company by market cap on the 31st of December, 2025

Feb 13, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.11%chance

5874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

982

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

3270

OptionProbability

20

19

Other

21

72

20

6

3

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