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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

45.88%chance

34862801596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11103

8478

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

85.69%chance

11252154561

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139802

91352

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1%chance

554928283

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10435

114

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

13.78%chance

981621363

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3009

589

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

5.21%chance

858583544

OptionVotes

YES

NO

89425

8110

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

36.47%chance

354297985

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7016

3431

Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?

Nov 6, 5:20 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM

73.22%chance

427149913

OptionVotes

NO

YES

17330

3422

Will there be a serious attempt by the GOP to overturn the election?

Oct 17, 1:16 AMJan 10, 11:59 PM

4.65%chance

170108664

OptionVotes

YES

NO

93482

5537

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.55%chance

10358928

OptionVotes

NO

YES

144964

69643

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

51198

OptionProbability

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

iOS 27

50

49

1

0

cuba se convertira en una democracia en 2026

Jan 14, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.17%chance

13338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

237

42

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

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