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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.33%chance

34462765805

OptionVotes

NO

YES

9920

9638

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

77.71%chance

573987483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101984

90887

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.23%chance

520799728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9341

126

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

21%chance

873502793

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2274

740

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

46.47%chance

493409147

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2991

2170

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Will the New England Patriots beat the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 Super Bowl LX

Feb 10, 8:43 PMFeb 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11637050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29790

25440

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

46.11%chance

5520913

OptionVotes

YES

NO

52799

45984

Will the Seahawks beat the Patriots in the 2026 Superbowl?

Jan 26, 2:52 AMFeb 9, 4:00 AM

68.9%chance

7218615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

27436

23803

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

5725

OptionProbability

iOS 27

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

80

12

6

1

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

cuba se convertira en una democracia en 2026

Jan 14, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.51%chance

4155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

197

51

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