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Prediction markets for SE

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

80.41%chance

9421659080

OptionVotes

NO

YES

103518

98647

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

1.67%chance

553921727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7954

146

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

19.81%chance

920546169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2368

716

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

9.66%chance

834517250

OptionVotes

YES

NO

59065

10415

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.67%chance

556467615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2818

2386

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

46%chance

346291594

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5852

4245

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

Sep 24, 9:28 AMOct 3, 2:59 PM

54.41%chance

7763833

OptionVotes

NO

YES

55508

45325

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67.02%chance

9257160

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143218

70492

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.18%chance

13746687

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13320

9842

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

5725

OptionProbability

iOS 27

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

80

12

6

1

cuba se convertira en una democracia en 2026

Jan 14, 1:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

9257

OptionVotes

YES

NO

188

53

Will "Alignment Pretraining: AI Discourse Causes Se..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 21, 11:06 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

22.52%chance

4179

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1085

607

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