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Prediction markets for SE

Will Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?

Dec 30, 3:16 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

63.64%chance

34402754093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

12404

7868

Will Trump finish his second term?

Dec 5, 9:25 PMJan 22, 5:59 AM

79.17%chance

402608690

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100138

97311

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

10.7%chance

802468529

OptionVotes

YES

NO

54986

10862

Did Donald Trump have sex with Bill Clinton?

Nov 14, 9:56 PMJan 1, 9:54 PM

2%chance

507442644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7237

160

Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?

Nov 12, 7:10 PMJan 19, 9:59 PM

22%chance

830421172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2200

759

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly selected computer games at human level without getting to practice?

Feb 20, 10:45 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

49.51%chance

472396409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

3133

2013

Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?

Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM

55%chance

296202993

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5156

4954

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.74%chance

13644436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12658

10372

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

62.79%chance

6342394

OptionVotes

NO

YES

129891

76988

🇧🇷 2026: winner is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado vence

Sep 24, 9:28 AMJan 16, 7:59 PM

45.36%chance

5018339

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44672

36014

Will SAP SE be the biggest European company by market cap on the 31st of December, 2025

Feb 13, 9:09 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.21%chance

74481

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4770

210

What major iOS version will be the first to not support the iPhone SE (2nd generation)?

Nov 17, 5:49 AMJan 1, 10:59 AM

5725

OptionProbability

iOS 27

iOS 28

Other

iOS 26

80

12

6

1

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