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Prediction markets for Sea Limited

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.71%chance

6518420

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2961

891

Will Iran strike US soil this year?

Mar 11, 8:32 PMMar 12, 11:59 PM

7.32%chance

10013504

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3559

281

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

96156

OptionProbability

March 1 2026

May 1 2026

July 1 2026

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

July 1 2028

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

Sep 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

Dec 1 2025

August 1 2025

July 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

83

82

82

80

80

74

63

63

63

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

When will Russia attack Europe with military force?

Nov 18, 7:18 AMMar 19, 10:59 PM

464399

OptionProbability

Never

Before end of 2029

In 2034 or later

Before end of 2033

31

25

23

21

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

22.74%chance

161411

OptionVotes

YES

NO

338

111

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

8.47%chance

10534

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

83

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11292

OptionProbability

China will dominate the global economy.

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

72

63

59

44

5

Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040?

May 14, 7:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.29%chance

473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

38

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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