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Prediction markets for Sea Limited

Will Kaliningrad achieve independence from Russia by the end of 2026?

Feb 4, 5:32 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.88%chance

6116081

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2804

896

Pacific Coast Highway: can it be driven from SF to LA on these days? (CA Route 1 closures/washouts/fires), til 2030

Jan 9, 9:03 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

96138

OptionProbability

May 1 2026

Jan 1 2027

July 1 2027

July 1 2026

March 1 2026

July 1 2028

Jan 1 2028

Jan 1 2029

July 1 2029

Sep 1 2025

Jan 1 2026

Dec 1 2025

August 1 2025

July 1 2025

March 1 2025

June 1 2025

80

80

80

79

76

74

63

63

63

2

1

1

1

0

0

0

When will Russia attack Europe with military force?

Nov 18, 7:18 AMMar 19, 10:59 PM

432320

OptionProbability

Never

Before end of 2029

In 2034 or later

Before end of 2033

70

21

7

2

Will an astronaut's life be lost during any stage of spaceflight before 2030?

Jan 31, 4:04 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

38.23%chance

281788

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

980

Will North Korea attack South Korea's outlying islands, causing fatalities, before 2030?

Feb 5, 5:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.04%chance

13797

OptionVotes

YES

NO

240

151

Will U.S. weapons strike targets inside Iran by March 31, 2026?

Feb 1, 8:55 PMMar 30, 11:59 PM

55%chance

22757

OptionVotes

NO

YES

111

90

Which Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?

Dec 25, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8260

OptionProbability

The AI bubble will NOT pop.

China will dominate the global economy.

The trade war will broaden.

More and more governments will hit a debt limit.

China will blockade Taiwan.

80

72

66

44

3

If the US defends Taiwan from Chinese invasion, will there be American strikes on Chinese soil?

Dec 17, 1:09 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

82.35%chance

7196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

65

WW3 begins in 2026

Jan 6, 7:33 PMJun 6, 9:59 PM

7.17%chance

5136

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

98

Will practical liquid breathing be demonstrated before 2040?

May 14, 7:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

73.29%chance

473

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

38

Will we get a PGS score of micronanoplastic toxicity (or resistance) by EOY2028?

Oct 16, 2:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

50%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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