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Which car company will drive between New York to San Francisco without anyone in the drivers seat first?

Sep 9, 12:44 PMSep 16, 10:59 PM

7756615

OptionProbability

Tesla

Waymo

Other

openpilot

General Motors

Cavendish Labs

None (does not happen by market close)

73

23

3

0

0

0

0

Will there be a popular fad to put a life-size plastic skeleton in the driver’s seat of a self-driving car before 2030

Jun 18, 5:06 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.31%chance

325229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1591

628

How many seats will the Democrats hold in the U.S. Senate after the 2026 Midterm Election?

Apr 2, 12:16 AMJan 4, 11:59 PM

184415

OptionProbability

49

48

50

47

51

44

45

46

52

Other

21

17

13

12

7

6

6

6

6

6

Will the Democrats gain 38+ seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 US midterm elections?

Mar 29, 7:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.87%chance

201549

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

If we buy a new car seat for our next child, will they cry less in the car?

Feb 10, 4:51 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.56%chance

211233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1089

720

Will any electric or hydrogen passenger airplane that can seat at least 100 people be in commercial use before 2033?

Feb 7, 9:15 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.84%chance

13706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

896

Party for Freedom (PVV) secures the most seats in the Dutch parliamentary election on October 29, 2025

Jul 26, 5:21 AMOct 29, 5:20 AM

54.34%chance

10604

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

917

Any of Elon Musk's America Party's candidates wins 10%+ of vote for a Congressional seat in 2026?

Jul 10, 1:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.73%chance

13546

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1158

864

Will 6 or more Tory MPs resign from their seats before 2026?

Oct 15, 8:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30%chance

2528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1528

655

Will the Australian Labor Party win a majority of seats in the House of Representatives at the next federal election?

Jul 22, 11:40 AMSep 25, 11:37 AM

62.57%chance

3409

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1293

773

If the Texas GOP succeeds in redistricting, will they gain seats in the midterms?

Jul 21, 11:15 AMNov 8, 12:14 PM

59.7%chance

12390

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1217

822

Will Rep. Thomas Massie run for and win Mitch McConnell's vacant senate seat in the 2026 Midterms?

Mar 2, 2:46 AMNov 5, 7:59 AM

36.39%chance

5322

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

756

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