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Prediction markets for SEC
OptionVotes
102671
88530
Will the U.S. enter a recession in Trump's second term?
Mar 13, 3:40 PMJan 21, 4:59 AM
54.07%chance
340280777
OptionVotes
5056
5043
Will Donald Trump be impeached during his second term?
Nov 6, 5:20 AMJan 21, 5:59 AM
63.63%chance
33299904
OptionVotes
14820
4572
OptionVotes
4476
344
Will Trump tout (positively promote) the possibility of default on US federal debt at any time during his second term?
Feb 2, 9:27 AMFeb 1, 1:59 PM
51.05%chance
4310153
OptionVotes
10938
8979
Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?
Dec 30, 2:44 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
20.49%chance
14449
OptionVotes
1101
956
Manifold.markets will be investigated by the FTC or SEC before EOY 2030
Nov 15, 2:51 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM
64.74%chance
4378
OptionVotes
135
74
Will the "not-security" ruling in SEC vs. Ripple be successfully appealed?
Jul 16, 9:37 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM
24.39%chance
5137
OptionVotes
198
56
Will Ben Shapiro be criminally charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?
Oct 27, 5:26 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM
26.86%chance
465
OptionVotes
165
61
Who in the Forbes 30 Under 30 2025 list will be charged, indicted, or SEC-sued before 2040?
Dec 14, 6:30 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM
257
OptionProbability
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
37
Will the SEC allow the tokenization of public company stocks during Trump's term?
Nov 15, 12:25 AMJan 22, 2:59 AM
51.47%chance
440
OptionVotes
103
97
Will a new SEC / IRS rule cause CF secondary volume to decrease by ~50% by 2030?
Nov 2, 6:53 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM
35.26%chance
438
OptionVotes
196
134