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Prediction markets for Secretary

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

18.59%chance

10218418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2093

478

Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?

Nov 14, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

72.73%chance

6411439

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1633

612

Will Marco Rubio still be Secretary of State in January 2026?

Nov 12, 3:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

82.09%chance

324750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1606

99

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.64%chance

363571

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1101

1099

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

42775

OptionProbability

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Below 94%

28

27

18

14

13

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.46%chance

151665

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1760

792

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

151206

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.97%chance

18690

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1425

839

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Apr 1, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

13233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

917

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.17%chance

12187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

966

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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