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Prediction markets for Secretary

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

20.86%chance

11820863

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1948

514

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

74625

OptionProbability

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

25

25

23

16

11

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.3%chance

403871

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1244

964

Who will be the next Secretary of State, after Marco Rubio?

Feb 7, 3:32 PMFeb 14, 10:59 PM

122066

OptionProbability

Other

Mike Pompeo

Pete Buttigieg

Rex Tillerson

Nate Morris

Ivanka Trumo

85

4

4

3

3

1

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.33%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

956

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.79%chance

19740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1475

826

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Mar 20, 5:04 AMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.47%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

828

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Apr 1, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

13233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

917

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

970

Who will be the UK Home Secretary on 1 January 2027?

May 30, 12:09 PMDec 31, 12:00 PM

3118

OptionProbability

Other

Shabana Mahmood

Yvette Cooper

Dan Jarvis

David Lammy

41

35

10

7

6

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