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Prediction markets for Secretary

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

32.05%chance

12221319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1457

687

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

75116

OptionProbability

96.5%-97.49%

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

97.5% or above

94%-95.49%

26

23

22

16

14

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.09%chance

423983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1202

1000

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.51%chance

211918

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1713

294

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

74.33%chance

181556

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

956

Will Tulsi Gabbard be Secretary of State before January 20th 2029?

Sep 14, 3:49 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.59%chance

111183

OptionVotes

YES

NO

614

16

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Mar 20, 5:04 AMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.47%chance

12392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1166

828

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Apr 1, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

13233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

917

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

970

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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