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Prediction markets for Secretary

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

29.74%chance

11620228

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1538

651

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

74625

OptionProbability

Below 94%

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

25

25

23

16

11

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.96%chance

393771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

957

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

13.99%chance

161715

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1810

784

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

161306

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

928

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1634

846

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.79%chance

19740

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1475

826

If confirmed, will Markwayne Mullin be DHS Secretary until 19 Jan 2029?

Mar 20, 5:04 AMJan 19, 12:00 AM

46.75%chance

10386

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1160

834

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Apr 1, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

13233

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1182

917

Who will lose his job first: Defense Secretary Hegseth or Defense Minister Dong?

Apr 22, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11217

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth

Dong Jun

60

40

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

970

Will the next secretary general of the United Nations speak German?

Nov 10, 4:46 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.47%chance

521

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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