Secretary News

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Jan 25, 1:15 PMJan 16, 4:59 AM

15.23%chance

10719190

OptionVotes

YES

2359

424

Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?

Nov 14, 11:06 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

81.71%chance

6812249

OptionVotes

YES

2114

473

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Feb 15, 12:23 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

335958

OptionProbability

Other

Ding Xuexiang (Vice Premier, 6th rank PSC member)

Li Qiang (Premier, 2nd rank PSC member)

Chen Jining (Party Secretary of Shanghai)

Zhang Youxia (Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission)

Wang Yang (former Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference)

[Nobody] (Xi Jinping does not have a successor as General Secretary)

Cai Qi (5th rank PSC member, first-ranked of Secretariat)

Li Xi (7th rank PSC member, Secretary of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection)

Wang Yi (Foreign Minister)

Wang Huning (tourist, political theorist, and 4th rank PSC member)

Chen Min'er (Party Secretary of Tianjin)

Yuan Jiajun (Party Secretary of Chongqing)

Yin Li (Party Secretary of Beijing)

Li Shulei (Head of Party Publicity)

Zhao Leji (3rd rank PSC member, chairman of NPC Standing Committee)

Chen Wenqing (Secretary of the Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission)

Will Marco Rubio still be Secretary of State in January 2026?

Nov 12, 3:43 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

83.75%chance

344792

OptionVotes

YES

1648

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

Dec 5, 6:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51.54%chance

383621

OptionVotes

YES

1103

1097

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

Nov 17, 4:34 PMDec 25, 7:59 AM

53525

OptionProbability

95.5%-96.49%

96.5%-97.49%

94%-95.49%

97.5% or above

Below 94%

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Apr 17, 4:51 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

14.46%chance

151665

OptionVotes

YES

1760

792

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Nov 30, 12:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

69.79%chance

161306

OptionVotes

YES

1019

928

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Apr 8, 1:58 PMAug 8, 9:59 PM

12.53%chance

321169

OptionVotes

YES

1634

846

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Apr 1, 2:29 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

79.79%chance

19740

OptionVotes

YES

1475

826

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Apr 1, 2:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78.85%chance

13233

OptionVotes

YES

1182

917

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

Apr 13, 9:59 AMAug 8, 9:59 PM

36.42%chance

13191

OptionVotes

YES

1037

970

Secretary News

Prediction markets for Secretary

Prediction markets for Secretary

Prediction markets for Secretary

Will Pete Hegseth serve a full term as Secretary of Defense (until January 2029)?

Will RFK Jr. be the Secretary Health and Human Services at the start of 2026?

Who will be the next General Secretary of China after Xi Jinping?

Will Marco Rubio still be Secretary of State in January 2026?

If Pete Hegseth is confirmed, will he be seen drinking a drop of alcohol while he is Secretary of Defense?

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

During the next Labour government, will there be a Foreign Secretary serving from the House of Lords?

Will Xi Jinping serve as General Secretary of the CCP and the President of the People's Republic of China through 2027?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before the US has its first female President?

Will a woman walk on the moon before a woman becomes Secretary General of the United Nations?

Will there be a woman secretary of the United Nations before the end of 2045?

Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?

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