Secretary for Security News

Who will leave (or resign from) Trump's cabinet first?

Jan 27, 5:09 AMJan 21, 4:59 AM

7715006

OptionProbability

Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)

Tulsi Gabbard (Director of National Intelligence)

Pam Bondi (Attorney General)

Kristi Noem (Secretary of Homeland Security)

Russel Vought (OMB director)

Howard Lutnick (Secretary of Commerce)

RFK Jr. (Secretary of HHS)

Marco Rubio (Secretary of State)

Scott Bessent (Secretary of the Treasury)

John Ratcliffe (Director of the CIA)

Doug Burgum (Secretary of the Interior)

Brooke Rollins (Secretary of Agriculture)

Lori Chavez-DeRemer (Secretary of Labor)

Scott Turner (HUD Secretary)

Sean Duffy (Secretary of Transportation)

Chris Wright (Secretary of Energy)

Linda McMahon (Secretary of Education)

Doug Collins (Secretary of Veterans Affairs)

Susie Wiles (Chief of Staff)

Lee Zeldin (EPA administrator)

Kelly Loeffler (Administrator of the Small Business Administration)

Mike Waltz (or confirmed UN Ambassador)

Jamieson Greer (US Trade Representative)

JD Vance (Vice President)

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

Oct 24, 1:01 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.43%chance

7813051

OptionVotes

YES

1306

939

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

Nov 9, 5:47 PMJan 17, 4:59 AM

467761

OptionProbability

Secretary of Defense: Pete Hegseth

Chief of Staff: Susie Wiles

Director of National Intelligence: Tulsi Gabbard

Secretary of State: Marco Rubio

Federal Bureau of Investigation Director: Kash Patel

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Lutnick

Secretary of Education: Linda McMahon

Secretary of Health and Human Services: Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Secretary of Homeland Security: Kristi Noem

Attorney General: Pam Bondi

Secretary of Transportation: Sean Duffy

Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency: Lee Zeldin

Director of the Office of Management and Budget: Russ Vought

Administrator of the Small Business Administration: Kelly Lorffler

Secretary of Agriculture: Brooke Rollins

Secretary of Labor: Lori Chavez-DeRemer

Director of Central Intelligence Agency: John Ratcliffe

United States Trade Representative: James Greer

Ambassador to the United Nations:

Secretary of the Interior: Doug Burgum

Secretary of the Treasury: Scott Bassent

Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Scott Turner

Secretary of Energy: Chris Wright

Secretary of Veteran Affairs: Doug Collins

President: Donald Trump

Vice President: JD Vance

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Mar 12, 8:49 PMJun 20, 7:59 PM

44.62%chance

573590

OptionVotes

YES

125

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Feb 7, 8:18 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

85.1%chance

81672

OptionVotes

YES

2390

418

Will Kristi Noem serve for Trump’s entire term?

Nov 12, 8:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

31%chance

4675

OptionVotes

YES

1492

670

What other government agencies will deny access to members of Congress?

Feb 7, 8:39 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3558

OptionProbability

Department of Commerce

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)

National Security Agency (NSA)

Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)

Department of Homeland Security

Internal Revenue Service (IRS)

Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)

Department of Interior

Department of Defense

Department of State

Department of Energy

Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA)

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Jun 22, 2:04 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

51.8%chance

11494

OptionVotes

YES

104

Will Trump significantly cut taxes for people making under 150k a year?

Mar 16, 4:18 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

8.03%chance

10255

OptionVotes

YES

338

who will win the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary elections?

Jul 23, 2:49 PMSep 6, 10:59 PM

5159

OptionProbability

Labour (Arbeiderpartiet)

Conservative (Høyre)

Progress Party (Fremskrittspartiet)

Other

Centre Party (Senterpartiet)

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Jul 2, 3:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2105

OptionProbability

Bob Archuleta (incumbent)

Other

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

Jul 22, 10:46 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

34.79%chance

465

OptionVotes

YES

137

Secretary for Security News

Prediction markets for Secretary for Security

Prediction markets for Secretary for Security

Prediction markets for Secretary for Security

Who will leave (or resign from) Trump's cabinet first?

Will Xi Jinping continue to lead China through end of 2028?

What cabinet official in President Trumps administration will resign or be fired?

If Russia doesn’t agree to the ceasefire, will America provide more assistance to Ukraines war efforts within 90 days?

Will Trump threaten to cancel AUKUS before 2029?

Will Kristi Noem serve for Trump’s entire term?

What other government agencies will deny access to members of Congress?

Will the US or Israel threaten to use nuclear weapons against Iran before 2029?

Will Trump significantly cut taxes for people making under 150k a year?

who will win the 2025 Norwegian parliamentary elections?

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 30th State Senate district

Will the UK revoke citizenship from more than 5,000 naturalised citizens in any single year by EOY2030?

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