OptionProbability
South Korea
Iran
Other
Saudi Arabia
Japan
Poland
Canada
Ukraine
Germany
Australia
Sweden
Brazil
Argentina
Turkey
Taiwan
N/A
15
12
10
9
8
6
5
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2495
916
During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z)
During 2025 (2025-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2026-01-01T00:00Z)
2027 or later or never (2027-01-01T00:00Z <= time)
During 2022 or 2023 (time before 2024-01-01T00:00Z)
During 2024 (2024-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2025-01-01T00:00Z)
41
29
13
1218
24
352
347
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
40