OptionProbability
Japan
Turkey
Iran
South Korea
Other
Saudi Arabia
Poland
Canada
Ukraine
Germany
Australia
Sweden
Brazil
Argentina
Taiwan
N/A
24
15
10
8
7
6
4
3
2
1
OptionVotes
YES
NO
2495
916
During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z)
2027 or later or never (2027-01-01T00:00Z <= time)
During 2025 (2025-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2026-01-01T00:00Z)
During 2022 or 2023 (time before 2024-01-01T00:00Z)
During 2024 (2024-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2025-01-01T00:00Z)
72
27
0
390
26
352
347
Jeffrey Sachs
Huey Li (and the news)
SerpentZA
Laowhy86
Nicholas Kristof
Michael Pettis
Peter Hessler
James Fallows
Kevin D Walmsley of Inside China Business
Liziqi
Nathan Rich
Living in China
Jerry Kowal
Significant effort (10k+ posts) to manipulate comment threads on hacker news.
Asia Society Policy Institute
Yale Center Beijing
Brookings Institution (China Center)
Blondie in China
Elon Musk
Bill Bishop, Sinocism
52
50
41
40
101
91