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OptionProbability
None. This argument is sound and Eliezer will be compelled to look at Krantz's work.
17. 5, 12, 14, 15 and 16 imply that if your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should review the work of Krantz.
19. 17 and 18 imply that Eliezer Yudkowsky and other safety organizations should review the Krantz system to help prevent doom.
8. People learn the things that they have obvious incentives to learn.
18. If AI safety orgs understood there was an effective function that converts capital into public awareness of existential risk from AI, then they would supply that function with capital.
11. If individuals can see that they will earn a substantial cash reward for demonstrating they understand something, they will be incentivized to demonstrate they understand it.
7. People only understand the things they have learned.
1. If AI develops the capability to control the environment better than humans, then humanity is doomed.
6. If every person on the planet understood the alignment problem as well as Eliezer Yudkowsky, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.
12. 10 and 11 imply that it is possible to incentivize people to understand the alignment problem.
14. 9 and 13 imply that if we sufficiently incentivize the understanding of the alignment problem, then people would take action to prevent dangerous AI scaling.
15. If your goal is to prevent the scaling of dangerous AI, then you should be working on building mechanisms that incentivize awareness of the issue. (from 14)
16. Krantz's work is aimed at building a mechanism that incentivizes the demonstration of knowledge.
2. If we continue to scale AI capabilities, then it will eventually be able to control the environment better than humans.
3. 1 and 2 imply that if we continue to scale AI capabilities, then humanity is doomed.
4. We should not be doomed.
5. 3 and 4 imply that we should stop scaling AI.
9. 6, 7, and 8 imply that if people had sufficient and obvious incentives to understand the alignment problem, then we would not scale AI to the point where it can control the environment better than humans.
10. It is possible to build a machine that pays individuals for demonstrating they’ve understood something.
13. If a majority of people understood the actual risks posed by scaling AI, then they would vote for representatives that support legislature that prevents the scaling of AI.
47
14
9
7
7
5
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives
Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)
Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs
Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies
Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies
55
53
51
50
28