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Prediction markets for Sector Perform

First jobs to be replaced by AI?

Sep 16, 4:47 PMJan 1, 5:15 PM

20817

OptionProbability

Customer Service Representative < 2028

Travel Agent - as we know it - to buy the travel packages <2027 (during 2026)

Market Research Analyst < 2030

Compliance Officer < 2030

Human Resources Manager < 2030

Graphic Designer < 2028

Teacher < 2040

Judges < 2040

53

53

36

36

35

34

32

28

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:49 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

73.28%chance

13540

OptionVotes

NO

YES

231

100

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^25 FLOP in China before 2027?

Jun 1, 6:47 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.62%chance

6459

OptionVotes

NO

YES

196

74

Will China and the US become AI partners in 2026? Removal of chips sanction or a co-developed LLM.

Feb 24, 9:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.36%chance

18447

OptionVotes

YES

NO

226

44

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

65

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7394

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

43

27

20

3

2

2

2

Will 10% or more of the top 20 biggest companies today still be in the top 20 in 2050?

Apr 17, 7:54 PMDec 14, 12:00 PM

72%chance

14346

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1091

949

Will Mexico's real GDP grow by at least 1.4% in 2026?

May 1, 11:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.12%chance

6340

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

961

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^27 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:51 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

43.99%chance

5142

OptionVotes

YES

NO

121

99

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2028?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

85.2%chance

5137

OptionVotes

NO

YES

208

45

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^26 FLOP in China before 2029?

Jun 1, 6:50 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82.14%chance

265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

135

41

Will a machine learning training run exceed 10^30 FLOP in China before 2035?

Jun 1, 6:53 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

33.78%chance

120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

56

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